China's National Climate Center said on Aug 4 that the El Nino state continued to intensify during Jun-Jul 2026, with the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature index reaching 1.60 degrees Celsius in Jun, up 0.64 degrees Celsius from May, and stabilizing above 2.0 degrees Celsius from the second pentad of Jul.

The center expects sea surface temperatures in the east-central equatorial Pacific to keep rising, with a strong to super eastern-type El Nino event likely to form in summer-autumn, peaking in autumn-winter and gradually weakening by spring-summer 2027. Under this scenario, Aug will see more heavy rain, high temperatures and typhoons than usual, with flooding risks elevated in the Songhuajiang and liaohe, Haihe and Pearl River basins, while the northwest faces persistent drought risks and autumn rainfall will be above normal in eastern and southwestern regions.