2024 China Thermal Coal Market Study and 2025 Outlook

Will safety inspection strength weaken in Shanxi province in 2025? Could the import volumes maintain the upward momentum? Will the impacts of extreme weather on thermal coal demand change? Can profit loss for coal shipment from producing areas relieve? Will coal prices continue to reverse conventional seasonal characteristics? These questions need our in-depth study. Fenwei is producing “2024 China Thermal Coal Market Study and 2025 Outlook”, to review and interpret important policies affecting coal market in 2024, and also provide detailed analysis and forecast in 2025 centering on policy environment, demand, production, supply, price, import & export, etc. The report incorporates abundant data, figures and technical parameters in clear analytic logics and viewpoints, which shall definitely act as a valuable reference for market participants to become versed in the development trend of China's thermal coal industry. The outline of the report is as follows. 1. China Macro-economy Review and Outlook 1.1 China's macro economy achieves stable recovery in 2024 1.2 Macro-economy outlook for 2025 1.3 Impact on the coal industry 2. Coal Industry Policies in 2024 and Developing Direction in 2025 2.1 Supply assurance and safety inspections coexisting 2.2 Zero tariff policy extended to end-2024 2.3 Impact of carbon peak and carbon neutrality 3. China Thermal Coal Demand in 2024 and Forecast in 2025 3.1 Total thermal coal demand in 2024 and forecast in 2025 3.2 Power industry 3.2.1 China's electricity demand maintains a steady growth in 2024, with hydropower improving substantially and thermal power continuing to play a cornerstone role 3.2.2 Forecast of coal consumption in the power industry in 2025 3.3 Iron and steel industry 3.3.1 Weak terminal demand and low profit margins in 2024 resulting in a significant decline in coal demand 3.3.2 Forecast of coal consumption in the iron and steel industry in 2025 3.4 Building materials industry 3.4.1 Real estate industry still in recession in 2024, reducing building materials demand 3.4.2 Forecast of coal consumption in building materials industry in 2025 3.5 Chemical industry 3.5.1 Acceptable profit margins and high operating rates in coal chemical industry in 2024 increasing coal demand 3.5.2 Forecast of coal consumption in the chemical industry in 2025 3.6 Heating industry 3.6.1 Demand in the heating industry increasing YoY in 2024 3.6.2 Forecast of coal consumption in heating industry in 2025 4. China Thermal Coal Supply Analysis in 2024 and Forecast in 2025 4.1 Thermal coal capacity analysis and forecast 4.1.1 Thermal coal capacity as of 2024-end: worsening industry environment dampens coal miners' willingness to commission new mines 4.1.2 2025 capacity forecast 4.2 Thermal coal supply analysis and forecast 4.2.1 Thermal coal supply in Shanxi province seeing limited increase in 2024 due to safety supervisions 4.2.2 Thermal coal supply forecast for 2025 4.3 Thermal coal inventory analysis and forecast 4.3.1 Small inventory pressure in producing areas 4.3.2 Continued high inventory at transfer ports 4.3.3 Downstream power plants maintain high inventory strategy 4.3.4 Forecast of inventory trends in each segment in 2025 5. China Thermal Coal Import and Export Analysis in 2024 and Forecast in 2025 5.1 China's thermal coal imports 5.1.1 China's coal imports refresh record in 2024 5.1.2 Import forecast for 2025 5.2 China's thermal coal exports 5.2.1 Export volume in 2024 5.2.2 Export forecast for 2025 6. China Thermal Coal Price Review in 2024 and Forecast in 2025 6.1 Thermal coal supply maintaining loose in 2024, while supply-demand unbalance still occurring in some periods 6.2 China's thermal coal prices falling in H1 2024 and fluctuating within a narrow range in H2 6.2.1 Thermal coal prices show strong fall-resisting property in producing areas while still unable to cover shipment cost at port market 6.2.2 Imported coal has obvious price advantage 6.3 Thermal coal price forecast for 2025 6.3.1 Analysis of price influencing factors 6.3.2 Thermal coal price forecast by month for 2025