2025 China Coking Coal and Coke Market Study and 2026 Outlook

China's real estate market has not bottomed out, and infrastructure investment slows down in 2025. Sales of automobiles and home appliances maintain strong growth thanks to consumption subsidy policy. The low coking coal prices help increase the competitive advantage of steel products and steel exports continue high growth in 2025. As the domestic steel demand is still on a downward trend, downstream purchases of coke and coking coal are conservative. The increase in domestic coking coal supply is restricted by the "anti-involution competition" policy, and the import volume tumbles compared with 2024. With the supply-demand contradictions gradually easing, coking coal prices tumbled in H1 2025 and rebound strongly in H2.

How will the domestic coking coal supply evolve in 2026 against the implementation of broad "anti-involution competition" policy? Will coking coal demand have a significant improvement under growth stabilization plans in steel, building materials and machinery industries? Will imports of Mongolian coal and Russian coal have growth potential? Will the competitive advantage of Australian coal be enhanced and thereby disrupt the existing import landscape? Will coke production capacity see a net increase? These questions need our thorough study.

Sxcoal is producing 2025 China Coking Coal and Coke Market Study and 2026 Outlook, to review and interpret important policies affecting coking coal and coke markets in 2025, and also provide detailed analysis and forecast in 2026 centering on policy environment, demand, production, supply, price, import & export, etc.

The report incorporates abundant data, figures and technical parameters in clear analytic logics and viewpoints, which shall definitely act as a valuable reference for market participants to become versed in the development trend of China's coking coal and coke industries.

The outline of the report is as follows.

 

1 2025 China Coking Coal and Coke Market Review: supply and demand rebalanced, prices in V-shaped trend

2 Macro-economy Overview and Outlook 

2.1 Domestic macro-economy overview and outlook

2.2 Impact on the coal industry

3 Coke Market Operation Analysis and Forecast

3.1 Coke capacity: new capacity commissioning being constrained by long-term thin industrial profit

3.1.1 Coke capacity structure by end-2025

3.1.2 Coke capacity expansion potential in 2026

3.2 Coke production: supply elasticity growing, sales-based production strategy

3.2.1 Influencing factors of coke production in 2025

3.2.2   Coke output analysis and forecast in 2026

3.3 Coke demand: greatly constrained by weak steel demand and focusing on policy-driven production cuts

3.3.1 Production of pig iron, crude steel and finished steel products in 2025 and forecast for 2026

3.3.2 Coke demand analysis and forecast

3.4 Coke import and export: sound demand in main export target regions

3.4.1 Import and export in 2025

3.4.2 Import and export forecast in 2026

3.5 Coke prices: Despite capacity surplus, prices moving up slightly under cost support

3.5.1 Supply-demand balance: supply capacity abundant, demand driving supply

3.5.2 Inventory

3.5.3 Coke price trends in 2025

3.5.4   Coke price forecast for 2026

4 Coking Coal Market Analysis and Forecast

4.1 Coal industry policies

4.1.1 Overproduction inspections, safety inspection policy, etc.

4.1.2 Import and export: import tariff resumed in 2025; focusing on the policies of exporting countries

4.2 Coking coal supply: capacity expansion slowing, focusing policy side and profit constraints

4.2.1 Coking coal capacity structure in 2025 and forecast in 2026

4.2.2 Cleaned coking coal supply in 2025 and forecast in 2026

4.3 Coking coal demand analysis in 2025 and forecast in 2026

4.4 Coking coal import and export: imports dominated by Mongolian coal and Russian coal, exports keeping low

4.4.1 China's coking coal import and export in 2025

? Total import volume

? Import structure: Mongolian coal and Russian coal as the mainstay, Australian coal and Canadian coal as supplements

4.4.2 China's coking coal import and export forecast in 2026

  Influencing factors

  Volume forecast

4.5 Coking coal prices

4.5.1Supply-demand balance: supply-demand fundamentals improving, yet          supply tightness persists during certain periods, prices moving up

4.5.2 Inventory

4.5.3 Coking coal price trends at home and abroad markets in 2025

4.5.4 Coking coal price forecast for 2026