The Russian government is examining whether to build the Trans-Altai Railway, a shortcut to China through the Altai Mountains that could advance to the pre-feasibility study stage.

The idea is being reviewed after a July 27 presidential instruction to examine the new Middle Transport Corridor project, a source familiar with the discussions told Kommersant. It is seen as a way to compete with the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, which links China to Europe while bypassing Russia, and to partially offset instability on southern sea routes.

But the costly project has no estimated cost or timeline, and analysts are increasingly cautious about whether future coal demand can justify trillions of dollars in transport infrastructure.

The proposed line would cross a 55-km stretch between Kazakhstan and Mongolia, where Russia's Altai Republic directly borders China's Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region.

The China-Europe Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, also referred to as the Trans-Caucasian Transit Route, is a Russia-bypassing corridor launched in 2017. Traffic moves through Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Georgia, then by sea to ports in Turkey, Romania or Ukraine, or overland through Turkey to Europe. In 2025, the route carried 4.12 million tonnes, including 77,000 TEU of containerized cargo.

An Altai Mountains shortcut to China was considered for the Altai gas pipeline in the 2000s, but that project was shelved because of price disputes, technical construction difficulties and the need to cross the Ukok Plateau nature reserve.

Russian Railways first considered building a railway there in 2021 to relieve congestion on the Baikal-Amur Mainline and the Trans-Siberian Railway. At the time, the monopoly assumed a tunnel would be too expensive, but did not rule out that elevated tracks could make the advantages outweigh the costs. Projected capacity was 30 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa), primarily coal from Kuzbass, Novosibirsk Oblast and Khakassia.

Four routing options are now under consideration, Kommersant noted. The final destination remains Aweitan Station in China.

Kuzbass Governor Ilya Seredyuk told Tass in late August that a direct railway from Kuzbass to China via the Altai Mountains would eliminate the need to haul coal 5,000 miles. It would free the Baikal-Amur Mainline for containers, metals, chemicals and wheat, he said.

The Ministry of Transport proposes that the government instruct the Ministry of Natural Resources to address environmental restrictions for the project, discuss its feasibility with relevant agencies and within the Russian-Chinese transport subcommittee, and then consider developing a preliminary feasibility study in various versions.

Kuzbass has high hopes for Trans-Altai, but long-term coal demand remains uncertain. Mikhail Burmistrov, head of Infoline-Analytics, said China is continuing to develop renewable energy rapidly. The long-term prospects for increasing thermal coal exports are severely limited, especially given the accelerated growth of railway tariffs, he noted. There is potential for coking coal and anthracite, he added, but even the relevance of the third stage of Baikal-Amur Mainline and Trans-Siberian expansion is fading.

China remains Russia's largest foreign trade partner, and problems at southern ports may increase demand for the eastern route, but Burmistrov argued that this is not a long-term issue and does not justify trillions of dollars in capital expenditure on infrastructure. Even as AI sharply increases electricity demand, coal remains behind renewable energy in that potential, he stressed.