South Korea has laid out an ambitious renewable energy expansion roadmap, targeting a 5.6-fold jump in installed renewable capacity to 236 GW by 2040, according to projections presented at the sixth public forum for the 12th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand on August 26.

The country's existing renewable energy capacity stands at 42 GW. To deliver the 2040 goal, annual renewable deployment must more than triple versus last year's pace. The large-scale buildout is driven by surging power demand from three state-identified mega projects: the Honam semiconductor cluster, data center construction and related large-scale developments.

Jo Sang-min, professor at Korea University of Technology and Education and member of the 12th Basic Plan steering committee, presented the renewable energy deployment outlook.

Under the outlook, total renewable energy installed capacity is expected to hit interim targets of 100 GW in 2030 and 163 GW in 2035, before reaching 220 GW by 2040. Self-generation solar capacity is separately projected to rise to 8 GW in 2030, 12 GW in 2035 and 16 GW in 2040. Combined, total renewable energy installed capacity would reach 236 GW by 2040.

A Korea Development Institute (KDI) report released last month found average renewable additions reached 1.7 GW per half-year over the past five and a half years. Realizing the new projections will require annual capacity additions of roughly 13 GW, around four times the current deployment rate.

By energy source, commercial solar power capacity, currently at 31 GW, is projected to rise to 86.7 GW in 2030, 122.2 GW in 2035 and 155.3 GW in 2040.

"We set the 2040 market potential of 271 GW as the saturation point and derived the projections based on past deployment performance," Jo said. " Reflecting the government's commitment to concentrating its policy capacity on an accelerated renewable energy transition, we projected that capacity would reach 87 GW by 2030 and grow to 155 GW by 2040."

Onshore and offshore wind capacity, currently at 2.1 GW and 0.4 GW, respectively, are expected to climb to 6.1 GW and 3.1 GW by 2030, 12 GW and 25 GW by 2035, and 15.5 GW and 45 GW by 2040. Self-generation solar capacity, which stood at 4.6 GW two years ago, is forecast to reach 8.1 GW in 2030, 11.9 GW in 2035 and 16.3 GW in 2040.

The steering committee plans to revise projections to align with a proposed regulation now in the legislative notice period and set to take effect in September. The rule would set solar installation setback distances at zero meters from roads and a maximum of 200 meters from residential buildings.

However, recalculating market potential and deployment projections, alongside grid capacity reviews and other facility plan revisions, will take substantial time. Updated figures will therefore be incorporated into the 13th Basic Plan instead.