Africa is set to install a record 17 GW of solar capacity in 2026, representing a 45% year-on-year growth and the third consecutive year of record installations, according to an analysis by energy think tank Ember in collaboration with African Tech Futures Lab.

Solar growth is broadening beyond established markets, with 36 of Africa's 54 countries expected to install record volumes in 2026, the analysis said. Nineteen countries are projected to see installations more than double year on year, led by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) at 544%, Zimbabwe at 282% and Egypt at 176%.

South Africa, which previously accounted for more than half of Africa's solar imports, is expected to represent less than one-fifth of total installations in 2026, highlighting the widening geographic spread.

The 17 GW of new capacity could generate about 23 TWh of electricity annually, enough to match the continent's average annual electricity demand growth over the past decade.

In more than half of African countries, solar generation growth is expected to exceed historical electricity demand growth. Ten countries are projected to see new solar capacity add more than 10% to annual generation, led by Sierra Leone at 97%, Togo at 24%, and Somalia and Djibouti at 21% each.

Africa's solar panel manufacturing capacity is expected to quadruple to about 3.5 GW in 2026, supported by new facilities in Egypt and Tanzania, though most output is destined for export to the U.S. Around 94% of panels installed across the continent are still imported from China.

The analysis estimated that roughly 75% of solar capacity added between 2023 and 2025 came from distributed solar, a segment largely absent from official statistics. Only South Africa, Tunisia and Tanzania publish solar data quarterly or more frequently, and official national data is available for just 36 of 54 countries.

Ember Chief Analyst Dave Jones said falling panel costs and improving economics are driving adoption, while stronger data collection would help governments and grid operators plan for the pace of growth. At least 15 African countries now have solar registration and permitting systems at an advanced stage.