The recent uptick in coal use across Southeast Asia – including Thailand reactivating dormant plants, and Vietnam and the Philippines burning more coal – has raised concerns about the region's climate commitments.

But this shift does not mark a reversal of long-term phaseout plans. Rather, it is a response to a sudden disruption in LNG supply chains.

Before the crisis, ASEAN countries had been steadily reducing coal pipelines, with about 12 GW of planned capacity cancelled in 2024. Indonesia pledged to end coal power by 2040, and the Philippines maintained a freeze on new coal projects. 

The temporary coal rebound stems from immediate needs: utilities turned to coal as dispatchable spare capacity when gas supplies tightened.

Thailand, heavily dependent on LNG spot markets, felt the price shock quickly. Vietnam, which only began commercial LNG deliveries in January, had little fallback experience. Even Singapore, which does not burn coal, was exposed via its 95% reliance on imported gas. 

Yet this is not a strategic U-turn. The International Energy Agency expects regional energy investment to hit a record US$57 billion in 2026, with sustained growth in renewables, grids, and end-use efficiency.

At the ASEAN Summit in Cebu, leaders strongly backed renewable acceleration, with Indonesia's president stating that diversification is "no longer optional". Policy and capital continue to align with the transition.

The crisis did, however, expose vulnerabilities: limited storage, weak grid interconnections, and inadequate demand-response capacity. Addressing these gaps will prevent future shocks from triggering coal reliance. 

Encouragingly, work is already underway. Singapore raised its low-carbon electricity import target to 6 GW by 2035 and is developing subsea links for Vietnamese offshore wind. Indonesia is advancing cross-border projects with Singapore, and the ASEAN Power Grid – formalized under the 2026-2030 cooperation plan – could save the region up to US$67 billion and offer cleaner alternatives during supply crunches. 

The real danger is that the coal rebound distracts from needed investments in renewables, storage, and grids. Southeast Asia never intended to abandon its coal phaseout, but getting back on track means building regional flexibility through interconnections, storage, and demand management. That is how a temporary setback becomes a reinvigorated phaseout.