Coal inventories at thermal power plants in India are projected to fall to 24-30 million tonnes by late September, down from around 37 million tonnes now, as seasonal supply reductions coincide with higher electricity consumption driven by a weaker monsoon and above-normal temperatures.

Coal supplies to thermal plants have picked up in recent months, even as stocks at generating units have retreated from the elevated levels recorded at the start of FY2026-27, pressured by cooling demand, local media reported on August 10, citing officials familiar with the matter.

Stocks at power plants stood at 59.3 million tonnes on April 1, compared with 37.2 million tonnes on August 7, data showed.

The average daily loading of coal rakes has climbed to 436 so far in August, up 15.96% from 376 in the same period last year, an official said. Another official pointed out that the second-quarter average last year was 370 rakes per day, whereas the current figure hovers around 434.

The uptick has become more marked since June, with daily averages reaching 426 rakes in April, 442 in May, 444 in June, and 434 in July, against 441, 443, 414, and 362 rakes in the corresponding months of 2025.

The slower movement earlier in the year was attributed to the substantial coal reserves already held at power plants.

The first official noted that should rainfall ease in mining regions, supplies could rise further, leading to stock accumulation. Total inventories across the supply chain currently amount to roughly 147 million tonnes.

Of this, Coal India holds 86 million tonnes, while Singareni Collieries Company accounts for 1.58 million tonnes. An additional 16 million tonnes is in transit or at ports, 9.5 million tonnes sits at captive mines, and about 34 million tonnes is held at domestic coal-fired power plants.

The second quarter of FY2026-27 (July-September) typically witnesses a drawdown in Indian coal inventories due to decelerating coal shipments and production. Stocks generally begin to recover thereafter, with accumulation gathering pace in the second half of the fiscal year. The first official stated that a rapid build-up is expected to commence after mid-November.