The United States possesses the world's largest coal reserves but remains under-positioned in global markets due to self-imposed logistical bottlenecks, regulatory burdens, and tax structures that undermine competitiveness against rivals such as Australia and Indonesia, according to a comprehensive report from the National Coal Council (NCC).

The Outlook and Opportunities for U.S. Coal Exports, submitted July 21 to Energy Secretary Chris Wright, calls for aggressive federal intervention to develop West Coast export infrastructure, reform permitting processes, and leverage trade agreements to capture what it describes as a unique moment of global opportunity.

With global power demand projected to surge more than 3.5% annually through mid-century and metallurgical coal markets expected to face structural tightness approaching 50 million tonnes by 2035, the council argues that U.S. coal producers stand at a crossroads requiring decisive policy action.

"If a new deepwater terminal were to be built on the West Coast, PRB coal exports could expand dramatically," the report said, referring to the Powder River Basin's vast subbituminous reserves. "The absence of sufficient large-scale West Coast export terminals, transportation costs and challenges including port draft limitations, lengthy permitting processes and other regulatory barriers reduce the competitiveness of U.S. coal compared to producers in Australia, Indonesia, and other exporting nations."

Infrastructure gap and logistics constraints

U.S. coal exports totaled 93 million short tons in 2025, generating $10 billion in revenue. However, this represented a notable decline from the 108 million short tons exported in 2024, driven largely by Chinese retaliatory tariffs that slashed U.S. coal purchases by 92% in early 2025.

East Coast ports, primarily Hampton Roads and Baltimore, handle approximately 62% of all U.S. coal exports. The Gulf Coast accounts for roughly 25%, while West Coast ports, constrained by a near-total absence of dedicated high-volume coal terminals, handle just 8% of export volume.

This structural imbalance, the report argued, effectively locks western coal producers out of direct trans-Pacific routes, forcing a heavy reliance on cross-border logistics through Canadian ports at British Columbia's Westshore Terminals, where throughput capacity is extremely limited and subject to growing competition from Canadian producers.

"The lack of a high-capacity West Coast export terminal capable of bulk commodity processing at a scale that meets Western U.S. coal export potential" represents the single greatest constraint, the report emphasized.

The impending closure of the Levin-Richmond Terminal in late 2026, following a legal settlement with the City of Richmond, will further constrict existing West Coast capacity. California's remaining facilities, the Port of Stockton and Port of Long Beach, face draft limitations that prevent full loading of larger Capesize vessels, increasing per-tonne shipping costs on long-haul routes to Asia.

Market dynamics create strategic opening

Global coal demand presents an opportune moment for U.S. expansion. More than 1,200 new coal generating units are under development worldwide, and new steel production facilities are coming online across Asia. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has amplified the need for energy diversity, the report noted, with coal providing an energy hedge against geopolitical upheaval.

Thermal coal prospects have strengthened considerably, driven by surging power demand from data centers, electric vehicle adoption, and industrial electrification. The International Energy Agency projected global power demand to reach 54,000 TWh by 2025, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration expected 43,000 TWh.

Metallurgical coal markets face even more favorable dynamics. The report forecast structural tightness approaching 50 million tonnes by 2035 in a market currently around 350 million tonnes, suggesting significant growth potential for U.S. producers if barriers can be eliminated.

Competitor dynamics provide additional tailwinds. Indonesia, the world's largest seaborne thermal coal exporter, has been steadily raising royalties and implementing export levies. President Prabowo Subianto announced on May 20, 2026, the nationaliza