Russia's coal exports increased 13% year on year in November, buoyed by renewed demand from China and South Korea, yet signs of weakening momentum began to emerge by month's end.

Russia exported 17.5 million tonnes of coal in the month, matching volumes from September and October, and lifting cumulative exports for January through November to 187.4 million tonnes, a 4.2% rise over the same period last year, showed data from the Price Benchmark Center cited by Kommersant.

Shipments to China, Russia's largest coal customer, rose 10% month on month to 7.9 million tonnes in November, rebounding from a decline in October.

China's coal imports overall climbed 5.6% on the month to 44.05 million tonnes in November, the official Chinese customs data showed, driven by aggressive buying ahead of winter.

Russian coal exports to South Korea also gained 9% from a month ago to 1.9 million tonnes last month, 1.5 times higher than last year's levels, though still below summer peaks. Turkey imported 1.4 million tonnes, up 7.7% from October and flat year on year.

In contrast, exports to India fell 22.2% month on month to 2.1 million tonnes, up 40% from the previous year.

Exports of Russian coal via border crossings declined 14% on the month and 30% on the year to 1.2 million tonnes in November, the lowest since March 2023, due to reduced rail deliveries to Far East ports in the second half month.

As thermal coal deliveries from Kuzbass, Khakassia, and Buryatia dwindled, coal shipments to Far East ports slid 8% from the month before to 8.6 million tonnes.

Analysts warned that rising domestic coal production in China and India, coupled with high inventories, could dampen their import demand in the months ahead. Russian coal exports are forecast to hover between 190-200 million tonnes by the end of 2025, close to 2024 levels, restrained by a cooling Chinese market.

Further pressure is expected in early 2026, Kommersant cited a PBC analyst as said. He noted that Chinese coal output typically increases early in the year until production caps are breached, with the cumulative effect curbing imports by late 2026. Seasonal off-peak demand is also expected to suppress market activity. Thermal coal prices may continue to drop against this backdrop.

Another analyst anticipated stable or modestly rising thermal coal prices by late 2026 but little upside for coking coal amid sluggish Chinese construction and a likely decline in steel production.

While demand for coking coal may receive a brief boost from the Chinese New Year holiday, any gains are expected to be offset by Mongolia's export recovery.

Still, some analysts saw cautious optimism, noting that metallurgical coal demand could strengthen in 2026 as the global steel market recovers, particularly in India, which lacks domestic supply.

Yet an analyst with Alfa Bank cautioned that Russian shipments will likely plateau near current levels in the short term, as logistical hurdles and domestic competition in key Asian markets persist.