Review: China's Nov coke output continues to drop on mth; Henan leads MoM fall

China's top five coke-producing provinces – Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, and Hebei – produced 23.31 million tonnes of the product in November, accounting for 55.9% of the country's total, expanding 0.7 percentage point compared to the preceding month, official data showed.

During the month, China produced 41.70 million tonnes of coke, up 2.3% from a year ago but down 0.5% month on month, marking a three-month sequential decline, showed data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The daily production was calculated at 1.39 million tonnes, jumping 2.9% on the month.

Higher daily output in November mirrored improved production performance in coke plants compared to a month earlier. Yet, the total volume continued to drop, as the improvement was too weak to offset the gap caused by fewer days of operation.

Coke plants saw decent margins last month, backed by lower production costs as coking coal prices trended downward. Supported by this, coke makers ramped up production, providing minor support to output.

However, the coking coal prices remained relatively high, putting pressures to production of some loss-making plants. This, coupled with maintenance at some enterprises, led to sluggish recovery of coke supply.

Of the top five provinces, Shanxi ranked first with production doubling that of the second-ranked Inner Mongolia.

The province produced 8.39 million tonnes of coke in November, down 1.5% on the month, accounting for 20.1% of the total. Inner Mongolia reported output of 4.30 million tonnes, a 0.1% rise from the month before and making up 10.3% of the total.

Shaanxi remained in the third place with coke output of 3.86 million tonnes, gaining 5.4% on the month and taking up 9.3% of the total. It was followed by Xinjiang, whose coke production rose 4.6% month on month to 3.49 million tonnes, grabbing an 8.4% share of China's total.

Hebei, ranking fifth, churned out 3.27 million tonnes of coke. The volume was 0.8% lower than a month prior and accounted for 7.8% of the country's total.

Outside the top five, no other provinces exceeded 3 million tonnes of coke production. Shandong ranked sixth with 2.44 million tonnes, declining 6.2% from October.

On a month-on-month basis, nearly 70% of the 27 provinces and regions registered coke production decreases, with Henan reporting the steepest decline rate of 9.2%, due to environmental-related production cuts, and Shandong recording the biggest decrement of 162,000 tonnes.

Among provinces and regions seeing an increase from the month-ago levels, Chongqing grabbed the largest growth of 27.1%, and the biggest increment of 199,000 tonnes was observed in Shaanxi.

In terms of daily coke output, about 60% of provinces and regions witnessed a month-on-month decline. Chongqing recorded the largest increase of 31.3%, while Henan experienced the steepest decline of 6.2%.

In the first eleven months, China produced 460.95 million tonnes of coke, up 3.2% compared to the year-ago level. Shanxi alone produced 93.43 million tonnes, up 11.1% year on year and accounting for 20.3% of the country's total.

Entering December, coking coal prices continued to retreat, still dragging down coke producers' raw material costs. Many coke plants maintained high coke production as profitability remained sound. Meanwhile, some plants previously undergoing maintenance resumed operations, providing a modest boost to coke supply.

However, coke supply growth may still face headwinds in the month, as environmental-related production cuts are continuously heard at coke plants in multiple regions.

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