China's portside thermal coal price-cut resistance grows, sporadic upticks

China's portside thermal coal market saw signs of easing in price reductions, as more sellers resisted further cuts amid emerging bargain hunters and some traders slightly raised prices to test sentiment.

Midweek inquiries showed a minor rebound after prices reached their lowest in 18 months, though the majority of buyers still seek lower prices. Securing supplies at low costs turned out to be more challenging, with miners unwilling to accept current low buying prices amid alleviated inventory pressure, Sxcoal understood from miner sources.

"Domestic coal prices have been continuously declining, with some lower-CV grades falling well below long-term contract levels. Some spot-future buyers tend to increase purchase of such coal owing to wider gap between spot and futures prices," said one Beijing-based trader.

The source also saw potential support from weaker production approaching this year's end, as some mines have already slowed production and a few planned to suspend after completing annual production and sales targets. Some small miners' planned shutdowns for the Spring Festival starting mid-January may also provide some support.

One buyer noted difficulties in securing 1%-sulfur 4,500 Kcal/kg NAR Shanxi coal at 558 yuan/t, FOB with VAT northern ports, while offers generally hovered above 563 yuan/t. One seller source offered the same-CV coal at 570 yuan/t on December 25, after concluding a deal at 565 yuan/t a day earlier.

"Several miners started to marginally increase prices in Inner Mongolia, providing cost support to supplies at northern ports," said a Ordos-based miner source in the region.

An offer of 0.6%-sulfur 5,000 Kcal/kg NAR Ordos coal was placed at 670 yuan/t FOB, while a counteroffer was heard 5 yuan/t lower.

Most offers of 5,000 Kcal/kg NAR coal were heard at 660-670 yuan/t and 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal 765-770 yuan/t, broadly flat compared with the preceding day, according to trader sources.

Following previous underselling, the availability of low-priced supplies became scarce at northern ports, partly helping stabilize prices, a Tianjin-based trader noted.

Similar positive signals were also observed at ports along the Yangtze River, where more traders slightly raised prices in response to increased inquiries for essential or short-covering needs. Transactions, however, remained stagnant due to wide bid-ask spread.

Some participants remained bearish over the near-term market, anticipating a stabilization only around the "Two Sessions" around early March next year.

On December 25, the CCI index for 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR thermal coal traded at Qinhuangdao port was assessed by Sxcoal at 765 yuan/t and 5,000 Kcal/kg NAR grade at 665 yuan/t FOB with VAT, down 2 yuan/t and 1 yuan/t day on day. The index for 4,500 Kcal/kg NAR grade was unchanged at 563 yuan/t.

The seaborne import market stayed quite on December 25 as some participants left for Christmas holiday. The outlook for the post-holiday market has improved slightly thanks to stabilizing signs in the Chinese domestic market.

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