China's coal supply and demand is expected to remain stable next year, according to Tang Shemin, an official of the National Development and Reform Commission's Economic Operation Department.

 

Speaking on the sidelines of the 2024 National Coal Trade Conference, Tang said domestic coal production capacity will be fully utilized, with overall output forecast to remain steady.

 

Rapid growth in new energy is accelerating the replacement of coal-fired power, Tang noted.

 

However, stable economic growth backed by governmental incentives is likely to drive higher-than-expected coal consumption in non-power industries, which bolsters power coal demand to remain flat overall compared with this year, he said.

 

If coal imports are not significantly impacted next year, China's coal supply will be guaranteed, Tang added. He called for upstream and downstream coal enterprises to fully implement supply tasks and improve contract quality and fulfillment.

 

The NDRC official stressed that ensuring energy security is critically important for the national development and people's livelihood. Authorities will continue to boost coal production by tapping new capacity to maintain ample supply.

 

"Coordinated efforts will be made to fulfill 2023 long-term electricity coal contracts and sign deals for 2024," he said.

 

Tang demanded coal companies to stabilize and increase output in the premise of safety, and power generators to diversify and ensure stable fuel supply. All efforts must be made to safeguard winter heating for the public, he stressed.

 

The official also praised achievements gained this year, not only guaranteeing ample supply but also maintaining coal prices largely range-bound in a controllable range.

 

This year, the price volatility has been much milder than in the past two years, mainly as the government sticks to policies and measures to support supply, including expanding new capacity, building reserves and revoking import constraints.

 

Despite extending high prices at the beginning of the year, at around 1,200 yuan/t FOB with VAT for 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal at northern ports, the prices gradually declined to the year low of 764 yuan/t on June 12 before gradually climbing to 1,035 yuan/t on December 11 amid pre-winter restocking. It finally dropped again and stabilized at 930-950 yuan/t amid weak demand and stable supply.