China Coal Daily Track (Nov 29)

Thermal coal

Production area A few mines suspended or cut production after completing production targets and due to heightened safety inspections, tightening supply in the mine-mouth market. Some miners maintained offer prices firm as they did not face inventory pressure, thanks to steady delivery of term contract coal and continued purchases by chemical and metallurgical plants. However, some other mines saw their raw coal dispatch slow as traders and washing plants were not active in buying, and mildly lowered prices to spur sales.

 

Northern port Trading activities were subdued at the portside market. Traders' offer prices marginally declined as downstream users presented lukewarm buying interests with strong intention to cut prices. The port-side coal stocks were high but demand from power plants remained weak. However, the downside room for prices was seen limited as firm mine-mouth prices made it still unprofitable to haul coal to ports and provided cost support to the port-side prices to some extent.

 

Import market The imported coal market was temporarily in a stalemate. Cost of imported coal was high due to firm offer prices from foreign miners and increased seaborne freight rate. Importers were inactive in taking cargoes as their prices were $1.5-2/t higher compared with the domestic tender-awarded prices. Offers of Australia 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal stood at around $94/t FOB, while the Panamax 3,800 Kcal/kg was offered at $61-62/t FOB.

 

Coking coal

The coking coal supply strain is hard to ease, as more mines suspended production due to coal mine accidents and escalated safety inspections, although a few previously suspended mines gradually resumed production. Buoyed by the completion of the second round of coke price hike, cokemakers showed a growing acceptance of high-priced premium coal. Miners generally reported smooth delivery and some continued to raise prices. Tight supply, coupled with remaining winter restocking demand, is likely to shore up coking coal prices in the short term.

 

Imported Mongolian coal prices stayed at high levels. Most downstream users purchased on a need-to basis due to profit constraints. Mongolian 5# raw coal prices were steady at 1,680-1,730 yuan/t, ex-stock with VAT.

 

Met coke

The second round of coke price hike has materialized, bringing the total increase to 200-220 yuan/t. Coke-making losses alleviated after the rise, but most producers still struggled to make a profit due to the continued surge in coking coal prices. Coking plants were not inclined to raise production, leading to the continued coke supply strain. Some mills found their coke stocks fell due to low intakes and asked producers to expedite delivery. The overall coke supply-demand fundamental would remain tight in the near term and firm cost support is likely to keep coke prices buoyed.

 

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