Firm power demand and constrained domestic supply are set to force India to boost thermal coal imports from the seaborne market again starting October 2026, as plant stockpiles come under mounting pressure, according to commodity data and analytics firm Kpler.

Electricity consumption remains strong, driven by sustained economic activity, and is expected to stay robust through the year. This requires coal-fired plants to operate at high utilisation rates, causing inventories to deplete faster than local mines can replenish them.

The monsoon has delayed production into the autumn, while a weak hydro season has heightened reliance on coal generation during the summer. With domestic output unable to bridge the gap, raising imports is seen as the practical path to maintain supply security.

India's power generation continues to run well above normal seasonal levels, with no slowdown in sight. Coal-fired output is projected to reach about 114 TWh in August 2026, up nearly 14% year on year.

Coal consumption should climb close to 10% annually, rising to roughly 77 million tonnes in August from about 70 million tonnes a year earlier.

Demand is also expected to remain firm into Q4 2026, as industrial activity hits its seasonal peak. With solar generation fading in winter and hydro output weak due to poor monsoon rains, coal will have to shoulder the country's base-load power requirements alone.

Coal production is on track to decline by more than 8% year on year in August, easing to around 64 million tonnes, before recovering from October through Q4 2026.

Total coal receipts at power plants are forecast to stay nearly flat at about 66 million tonnes in both August and September, compared with consumption demand of 77 million tonnes and 68 million tonnes, respectively.

As a result, overall coal stocks are expected to drop by roughly 50% year on year in August, falling to about 27 million tonnes from around 53 million tonnes a year earlier, with little improvement seen until the end of the current financial year in April 2027.

This leaves utilities vulnerable to critically low stock levels unless imports are brought back for blending purposes.

While the anticipated recovery in domestic output from October should offer some temporary relief, production typically comes under strain again as the next monsoon approaches. That points to October 2026 as the likely moment when import buying resumes to rebuild buffer stocks.