Thermal Coal

Production area Mine-mouth thermal coal prices moved in both directions in major producing regions. Coking and chemical plants maintained on-demand purchases. Most miners kept prices unchanged thanks to a general balance between production and sales, while some slightly raised prices for certain well-sold coal grades. However, some end users shunned high-priced cargoes, coupled with subdued portside transactions and thickening wait-and-see sentiment among railway station-based traders and washing plants, leading to stock accumulation and modest price reductions at a few mines.

Northern port Despite lower offer prices, portside transactions remained sparse as downstream buyers drove hard bargains, resulting in a 5-10 yuan/t bid-ask spread. Some participants noted that portside prices continued to fall due to bleak demand from power utilities and insufficient consumption in non-power sectors. Nevertheless, coal stocks did not significantly mount up at northern ports, as traders remained unprofitable in port-bound shipments. They were not eager to undersell in anticipation of positive restocking needs for the upcoming winter peak period. Portside prices are likely to extend drops in the short run.

Import market The seaborne import market was quiet after the National Day holiday amid overseas offer price rises. Indonesian 3,800 Kcal/kg NAR coal was offered at $55-56/t FOB on a Panamax basis, while winning prices to Chinese utility tenders remained below 500 yuan/t, failing to cover costs at current prices. Traders noted that existing short-covering demand and a better pricing edge for low-CV coal would limit the downside potential of imported coal prices. Nonetheless, weakening domestic prices also pose a challenge to upward movements.

Coking coal

Cautious sentiment further widened amid poor steel transactions and continuous declines in steel prices. High-priced cargoes encountered offtake difficulties. Online auctions saw increased failure rates and sliding trading prices. Coking coal miners did not face immediate sales pressure due to the ongoing fulfillment of previous orders, encouraging them to persistently raise offer prices. Multiple coking coal grades have climbed 100-200 yuan/t since October. A notable rebound in molten iron output and decent on-demand purchases from steel and coke producers will continue to shore up coking coal prices in the near term.

Mongolian coal inflows at China's Ganqimaodu border port steadily rebounded, with 1,189 trucks passing through on October 11. Yet, downstream buyers showed low buying appetite and sat on the sidelines, resulting in lukewarm transactions at the port and dampening traders' confidence. Offer and settled prices both retreated moderately. Prices for Mongolian 5# raw coal under long-term contracts declined to around 1,250-1,280 yuan/t, ex-stock Ganqimaodu with VAT.

Met coke

Coke prices temporarily stabilized after the materialization of the fifth coke price hike. The sixth rise met resistance from steelmakers due to satisfactory coke arrivals and shrinking steelmaking profits caused by sustained drops in finished steel prices. However, steel mills, backed by currently positive macroeconomic conditions, remained enthusiastic about production, driving coke demand. Coking plants hence enjoyed smooth sales and relatively low inventories. The sixth round of price increases is likely to be implemented soon given strengthened supply-demand fundamentals.