Thermal Coal

Production area Thermal coal prices continued rising in major producing regions, thanks to active restocking from railway station-based traders. Coking, metallurgical and chemical plants also maintained sound demand. Long queues of coal trucks arrived at mines for loading, encouraging miners to consistently offer higher prices. Some miners believed that potentially tightened supply after completing monthly production tasks in late September and expected pre-National Day holiday replenishment would shore up further price growth.

Northern port Traders offered stable prices and were active in selling, while downstream buyers continued to press prices, leading to lukewarm transactions. Most traders held offer prices firm due to elevated shipping costs from mines alongside sustained mine-mouth price gains. However, some participants expected near-term prices to be range-bound, as reduced power loads at utilities amid cooler temperatures in southern China and scarce purchasing needs are hard to sustain upward strength.

Import market Chinese power utilities continued to float tenders but saw reduced bidding prices. The lowest bid for 3,800 Kcal/kg NAR coal received by one utility in southern China stood at 480 yuan/t, DDP with VAT. Some traders noted that firm overseas prices and high costs, coupled with active inquiries for restocking and short-covering demand, would leave little room for imported coal prices to fall. Spot offer prices for 3,800 Kcal/kg NAR coal came in at $53-54/t.

Coking coal

Coking coal prices were temporarily stable supported by active restocking from coke and steel producers ahead of the National Day holiday. Multiple positive macroeconomic signals significantly boosted finished steel transactions, injecting confidence into the coking coal market. Online auctions saw more price gains than falls. Though some washing plants and traders have not yet entered the market and some focused on selling existing goods, satisfactory sales at mines would still fuel expectations of further price rises in the short run.

Mongolian coal inflows at China's Ganqimaodu border port rebounded, with 1,055 trucks passing through on September 25. Yet, actual transactions at the border have not picked up significantly amid low buying appetite among downstream buyers. Offer prices for Mongolian 5# raw coal under long-term contracts ticked up to around 1,140-1,150 yuan/t, ex-stock Ganqimaodu with VAT, yet no successful deals heard concluded at new prices.

Met coke

The announcement of unexpected favorable policies greatly improved market sentiment, with increasing participants anticipating price growth. Some steel mills in Hebei have accepted the second coke price rise, up totaling 100-110 yuan/t since September 20. Finished steel prices followed suit to rise sharply, further improving steelmaking profits and prompting steelmakers' production enthusiasm. Steel mills were in the process of blast furnace resumption, indicating sustained coke demand. With coke supply-demand fundamentals strengthening backed by increased feed coal costs, the second coke price hike is highly likely to materialize soon.