Despite the reopening of Chinese market to Australian coking coal this year, Chinese buyers have showed subdued import interest from the country, due to higher-than-average price levels. However, will it regain the title of No.1 coking coal supplier to China in 2024?

 

China presented stronger-than-ever coking coal import demand in 2023 after Beijing loosened COVID-related restrictions and the whole country gathered all-needed effort to revive economy.

 

Since June, coking coal prices in China turned around. The CCI index for Shanxi low-sulfur coking coal prices stood at 1,670 yuan/t averagely in May, and then gradually climbed to 2,290 yuan/t in October.

 

Upbeat strength for coking coal prices mainly came from hot demand yet tight supply, which is still the result of cushion effect of surged coking coal imports.

 

China's effective domestic coking coal supply was at 372 million tonnes of September, against demand of 442 million tonnes, but the supply shortage was filled by net coking coal imports of 73 million tonnes, indicating the pivotal role imported coking coal played.

 

China imported 73.15 million tonnes of coking coal during first nine months of 2023, realizing a year-on-year jump of 61% or 27.71 million tonnes.

 

The increases mainly came from Mongolia, at 21.37 million tonnes, which is followed Russia's 5.49 million tonnes.

 

This is common to see in recent two years, mainly owing to short distance and high price edge.

 

Mongolian coking coal has made up more than half of China's total coking coal imports from January to September, at 52%, while the share in July and August even surpassed 60%.

 

China also formulated more favorable policies to support coking coal imports. The country has canceled tariffs over coal imports since May 2022, and plans to restore original rates on April 1, 2023, but the resumption data is extended at December 31, 2023 to ensure domestic coal supply.

 

Import taxes for most coal imports from Indonesia and Australia have already been lifted, according to China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement and China-Australia Free Trade Agreement. The zero-tariff policy benefited Russia and Mongolia mostly and specifically.

 

China-Mongolia border crossings have focused on improving infrastructure this year to increase coal traffic. Coal clearance from Mongolia continued to rise during first three quarters and completed targets in advance.

 

Australia has long been China's biggest coking coal source before an unofficial embargo. Chinese coke producers and steel mills are more favorable for this coal grade as coke produced from Australian coal can improve production rate of coke ovens with its features like low-sulfur, low-ash and high-strength.

 

Coal imports from Australia during January-September period only accounted for 2% of China's total imports, with 1.71 million tonnes, far from posing a threat to Mongolian coal.

 

So in 2024, will Australia regain its dominance in China's imported coking coal market? Whether Mongolian coal and Russian coal can rise further? More content please refer to 2023 China Coking Coal and Coke Market Study and 2024 Outlook.

 

The report sorts out and interprets important policies that affected development and operation of the coal industry in 2023, and provides detailed analysis and prediction on various aspects such as policy environment, demand, production and supply, prices, imports and exports in 2024.

 

The report contains a large amount of data, charts, and industry technical parameters, with clear analysis logic and clear viewpoints, providing valuable references for professionals who are interested in the coking coal industry to monitor industry development and market trends.