Romania could avoid keeping its 854 MW coal fleet running until 2029 by expanding a demand-side response (DSR) mechanism to cover expected winter electricity shortfalls, the Energy Policy Group (EPG) said in a report on September 22.

Keeping coal online would cost about EUR 195 million per year, over four times more than a DSR mechanism that could fill the same supply gap, which EPG puts at EUR 45 million per year.

The TSO's national resource adequacy assessment predicts recurring shortfalls of around 143 hours per year between 2027 and 2030, mainly due to the refurbishment of Cernavoda nuclear unit 1 and delays to new gas-fired capacity.

These deficit hours are expected to cluster in winter and during two daily peaks – early morning and evening – making them suitable for load-shifting through DSR, EPG said.

"Coal is not needed to overcome winter supply deficits. What is actually needed is a flexible DSR mechanism in the short- to medium-term alongside long-term energy transition, complete with energy storage and increased low-carbon capacities," said Nadia Maki, senior researcher at EPG.

Romania launched its first formal DSR mechanism on September 1, contracting roughly 3 MW in an initial auction. The country has potential for around 235 MW from industrial consumers and 1.8 GW from households, EPG said.

Continued reliance on coal could also threaten Romania's access to remaining EU recovery funds, as the national recovery and resilience plan requires a full coal phaseout, Maki said.

Romania had been due to phase out coal completely by the end of last year, but negotiated a delay with the European Commission to become coal-free by 2032.

In the first seven months of the year, before the Cernavoda nuclear plant shut down, Romania's power mix was 20% hydropower, 18% gas, 17% nuclear and 10% each from solar, wind and coal, according to Montel EQ data.