Sxcoal Morning Brief (Sep 24, 2026)

Sxcoal Morning Brief
Sep 24, 2026

Key Takeaways

1. Mine-mouth thermal loses steam 12 of 117 surveyed mines cut offers, but pre-holiday utility restocking and slow supply recovery cap the downside

2. Coking coal and coke under pressure stock builds and cautious buying soften coking coal; coke balance loosens with price-cut talk

3. Intl thermal retreats over 3% from highs better supply outlook and seasonal weakness; Indonesia sets end-2026 single-door export

4. Railway coal shipments hit 1.39 Bt in Jan-Aug 928 Mt thermal; northeast winter external reliance draws watch

Market

1China mine-mouth thermal loses steam; utility buys hold floor

Thermal coal prices across key producing regions showed fatigue on Sep 23, with 12 of 117 surveyed mines trimming offers as downstream buying slowed. The pullback was contained by pre-holiday utility restocking and slow supply recovery. The CCI for Yulin 5,800 kcal fell 5 yuan/t DoD to 901 yuan/t, while Ordos 5,500 kcal held at 825 yuan/t and Datong 5,500 kcal at 855 yuan/t, both flat DoD.

Note: Policy-driven output recovery and soft spot demand cap gains, but slow restarts and tight rail inflows keep port stocks from building, supporting prices.

2China coking coal poised for further dips as stocks build

China coking coal market softened on Sep 23 as mine-side inventory buildup and cautious pre-holiday procurement outweighed still tight supply. Online auctions and spot quotes signal further downside near term; coking plants and steel mills buy only to need, resisting bulk restocking while Shanxi output stays low.

Note: Thin trading and high coal prices erode coke price-hike case; coking coal stays range-soft with supply tightness capping the downside.

3Portside thermal steadies as pre-holiday trade slows

China northern port thermal coal market was largely steady on Sep 23 as pre-holiday activity slowed and buyers balked at elevated levels, while firm replacement costs and tight spot supply anchored offers. Import arbitrage diverted some utility demand.

Note: Pre-holiday standoff keeps port prices range-bound; limited spot availability prevents any sharp correction.

Production & Supply

4China railway coal shipments reach 1.39 Bt in Jan-Aug

China State Railway Group shipped 1.39 Bt of coal in Jan-Aug 2026, including 928 Mt of thermal coal, with coal stocks at directly-served power plants staying elevated; the railway boosted shipments from Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang to secure summer supply.

Note: Rail remains the backbone of coal supply; utility coal stocks look comfortable, though external-reliant northeast faces winter-pressure watch.

5NEA chief urges winter supply security in Jilin

NEA head Wang Hongzhi called for solid winter energy and power supply preparations during a Sep 20-21 Jilin visit covering energy investment, winter supply, new grids and new fuels, stressing warm winters for the public as the northeast deepens reliance on external coal.

Note: With winter nearing, supply focus shifts north; northeast growing external dependence and falling local output draw attention.

6CHN Energy starts 1 GW coal power project in Inner Mongolia

China Energy Investment Corp began construction of a 1 GW coal-fired unit in Ordos, Inner Mongolia on Sep 21 -- a supercritical, indirect air-cooled generator with desulfurization, denitrification and dust removal -- a key regional energy project supporting west-to-east power export.

Note: New build reinforces Mengxi export capacity with cleaner, high-efficiency units.

Policy & Regulation

7Two ministries launch carbon-metrology review for emitters

SAMR and MEE jointly issued a notice deploying carbon-emission metrology reviews of key emitters in the national carbon market, giving clear guidance and safeguarding fair trading; the market now covers power, steel, cement and aluminum smelting.

Note: Metrology is the bedrock of emission management; the review hardens the carbon market data foundation.

8Greater Bay Area carbon-footprint certificates enter 4th-party review

A Shenzhen-Hong Kong alliance launched a review of carbon-footprint certification certificates covering tech, manufacturing and supply-chain firms via document, on-site and data checks, introducing a fourth-party verification mechanism.

Note: Fourth-party checks enforce ongoing compliance; Bay Area carbon-footprint mutual recognition and green-trade readiness accelerate.

International

9Intl thermal coal retreats from highs as supply outlook improves

International thermal coal prices pulled back from early-Sep highs after a strong Aug rally, with Newcastle futures down over 3% from the peak and Indonesian benchmark prices broadly easing, pressured by China supply-recovery signals and seasonal demand weakness.

Note: Better supply expectations and soft seasonality cool prices; geopolitical disruption remains an upside risk.

10Indonesia on track for single-door export by end-2026

Trade Minister Budi Santoso said on Sep 22 that Indonesia will fully roll out its centralized single-door export system for key strategic resources by end-Dec 2026 under Govt Regulation 24/2026, with state firm Danantara coordinating a shift from volume to value and local processing.

Note: Indonesia volume-to-value pivot and RKAB control may marginally trim exports, underpinning seaborne offers.

11Huaneng tenders 1.13 Mt seaborne thermal for Oct-Nov

China Huaneng floated its 35th 2026 imported-thermal tender, seeking 17 cargoes / 1.128 Mt (3,000-5,500 kcal/kg, 0.3%-1.6% sulfur) for coastal plants, with delivery Oct 10-Nov 11.

Note: Pre-holiday coastal restocking and import arbitrage keep tender volumes steady, signaling floor demand.

Downstream & Transition

12Global transition shifts spend from generation to grid, storage

Reuters column: the energy transition has entered a phase where utilities redirect capital from adding generation to building infrastructure for renewable-heavy grids; storage and transmission spending hit records across Europe, Asia, Africa, Oceania and Latin America, with Germany 900 MW storage project breaking ground for 2028 start.

Note: The pivot from capacity to system makes grid absorption and storage the new investment theme.

13Germany Aug crude steel up 1.7% YoY, down 3.2% MoM

German mills made 2.59 Mt of crude steel in Aug 2026, up 1.7% YoY but down 3.2% MoM; weak domestic demand extended the Jul downtrend, with BOF at 1.87 Mt (-2% YoY) and EAF at 0.72 Mt (+13%).

Note: Persistent European steel weakness continues; rising EAF share reflects the low-carbon shift even as volumes stay pressured.

14Ningdong coal-to-chemicals anchors Ningxia transition

The Ningdong Energy and Chemical Base is positioning coal-to-chemicals as a strategic oil-route alternative, converting coal into polyolefins and other high-end materials; the hub spans 4,450 sq km (core ~800 sq km) and anchors China energy-security push.

Note: Coal-chemical chaining adds value and substitutes oil-based routes, a model for energy security and upgrade.

Market Sentiment

● Portside thermal
Pre-holiday trade slows; offers firm on cost and tight supply, range-bound standoff
● Mine-mouth thermal
12 of 117 mines trim offers; utility restocking and slow restarts cap the downside
● Coking coal
Mine-side stocks build, buyers resist bulk restocking; auctions point lower
● Coke
Feed-coal costs ease and balance loosens; price-cut talk builds
● Import coal
Seaborne prices retreat over 3% from highs; Huaneng tenders 1.128 Mt show floor demand
● Steel
German crude steel -3.2% MoM; European demand weakness persists
● Indonesia supply
Single-door export by end-2026 shifts volume to value; marginal tightening seen
● National carbon market
Carbon-metrology review deployed; Bay Area fourth-party checks start

● Weak / falling● Neutral / range-bound● Firm / rising

Sxcoal MCP
Access real-time coal and commodity news and data via the Sxcoal MCP to automate the generation of daily news briefings and multi-variety, multi-cycle professional reports, while supporting rapid retrieval and intelligent querying of prices and data.

All rights reserved. No reproduction is allowed without written permission.

Ctrl + Enter to quick post

emptyNo Content
Like
Save
toggle