Key Takeaways
1. Mine-mouth thermal loses steam 12 of 117 surveyed mines cut offers, but pre-holiday utility restocking and slow supply recovery cap the downside
2. Coking coal and coke under pressure stock builds and cautious buying soften coking coal; coke balance loosens with price-cut talk
3. Intl thermal retreats over 3% from highs better supply outlook and seasonal weakness; Indonesia sets end-2026 single-door export
4. Railway coal shipments hit 1.39 Bt in Jan-Aug 928 Mt thermal; northeast winter external reliance draws watch
Market
1China mine-mouth thermal loses steam; utility buys hold floor
Thermal coal prices across key producing regions showed fatigue on Sep 23, with 12 of 117 surveyed mines trimming offers as downstream buying slowed. The pullback was contained by pre-holiday utility restocking and slow supply recovery. The CCI for Yulin 5,800 kcal fell 5 yuan/t DoD to 901 yuan/t, while Ordos 5,500 kcal held at 825 yuan/t and Datong 5,500 kcal at 855 yuan/t, both flat DoD.
2China coking coal poised for further dips as stocks build
China coking coal market softened on Sep 23 as mine-side inventory buildup and cautious pre-holiday procurement outweighed still tight supply. Online auctions and spot quotes signal further downside near term; coking plants and steel mills buy only to need, resisting bulk restocking while Shanxi output stays low.
3Portside thermal steadies as pre-holiday trade slows
China northern port thermal coal market was largely steady on Sep 23 as pre-holiday activity slowed and buyers balked at elevated levels, while firm replacement costs and tight spot supply anchored offers. Import arbitrage diverted some utility demand.
Production & Supply
4China railway coal shipments reach 1.39 Bt in Jan-Aug
China State Railway Group shipped 1.39 Bt of coal in Jan-Aug 2026, including 928 Mt of thermal coal, with coal stocks at directly-served power plants staying elevated; the railway boosted shipments from Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang to secure summer supply.
5NEA chief urges winter supply security in Jilin
NEA head Wang Hongzhi called for solid winter energy and power supply preparations during a Sep 20-21 Jilin visit covering energy investment, winter supply, new grids and new fuels, stressing warm winters for the public as the northeast deepens reliance on external coal.
6CHN Energy starts 1 GW coal power project in Inner Mongolia
China Energy Investment Corp began construction of a 1 GW coal-fired unit in Ordos, Inner Mongolia on Sep 21 -- a supercritical, indirect air-cooled generator with desulfurization, denitrification and dust removal -- a key regional energy project supporting west-to-east power export.
Policy & Regulation
7Two ministries launch carbon-metrology review for emitters
SAMR and MEE jointly issued a notice deploying carbon-emission metrology reviews of key emitters in the national carbon market, giving clear guidance and safeguarding fair trading; the market now covers power, steel, cement and aluminum smelting.
8Greater Bay Area carbon-footprint certificates enter 4th-party review
A Shenzhen-Hong Kong alliance launched a review of carbon-footprint certification certificates covering tech, manufacturing and supply-chain firms via document, on-site and data checks, introducing a fourth-party verification mechanism.
International
9Intl thermal coal retreats from highs as supply outlook improves
International thermal coal prices pulled back from early-Sep highs after a strong Aug rally, with Newcastle futures down over 3% from the peak and Indonesian benchmark prices broadly easing, pressured by China supply-recovery signals and seasonal demand weakness.
10Indonesia on track for single-door export by end-2026
Trade Minister Budi Santoso said on Sep 22 that Indonesia will fully roll out its centralized single-door export system for key strategic resources by end-Dec 2026 under Govt Regulation 24/2026, with state firm Danantara coordinating a shift from volume to value and local processing.
11Huaneng tenders 1.13 Mt seaborne thermal for Oct-Nov
China Huaneng floated its 35th 2026 imported-thermal tender, seeking 17 cargoes / 1.128 Mt (3,000-5,500 kcal/kg, 0.3%-1.6% sulfur) for coastal plants, with delivery Oct 10-Nov 11.
Downstream & Transition
12Global transition shifts spend from generation to grid, storage
Reuters column: the energy transition has entered a phase where utilities redirect capital from adding generation to building infrastructure for renewable-heavy grids; storage and transmission spending hit records across Europe, Asia, Africa, Oceania and Latin America, with Germany 900 MW storage project breaking ground for 2028 start.
13Germany Aug crude steel up 1.7% YoY, down 3.2% MoM
German mills made 2.59 Mt of crude steel in Aug 2026, up 1.7% YoY but down 3.2% MoM; weak domestic demand extended the Jul downtrend, with BOF at 1.87 Mt (-2% YoY) and EAF at 0.72 Mt (+13%).
14Ningdong coal-to-chemicals anchors Ningxia transition
The Ningdong Energy and Chemical Base is positioning coal-to-chemicals as a strategic oil-route alternative, converting coal into polyolefins and other high-end materials; the hub spans 4,450 sq km (core ~800 sq km) and anchors China energy-security push.
Market Sentiment
● Weak / falling● Neutral / range-bound● Firm / rising
