Sxcoal Morning Brief (Sep 23, 2026)

Sxcoal Morning Brief
Sep 23, 2026

Market

1Portside thermal holds firm in pre-holiday lull; import stays competitive

Northern ports traded in a holding pattern as tight spot availability and high replacement costs kept sellers from conceding, while buyers stayed on the sidelines and imported coal's price edge diverted some utility demand. Seaborne Indonesian 3,800 Kcal/kg NAR Panamax was offered at $79-82/t FOB, with overseas miners holding offers steady and traders cautious on October cargoes.

Note: A supply-boost policy dampened procurement interest and pulled the market into pre-holiday wait-and-see, yet slow mine restarts and Daqin maintenance curb port inflows, leaving stocks manageable and prices resistant to sharp falls.

2Mine-mouth thermal eases as caution spreads

Of 117 mines Sxcoal surveyed on Sep 22, five raised prices by an average of 30.6 yuan/t and seven lowered by 37.86 yuan/t on average, while 105 held. Steady high-CV demand and pre-holiday restocking capped sustained declines, but more traders adopted a wait-and-see stance after the production-boost policy.

  • ●Yulin, Shaanxi: 5,900 Kcal/kg NAR mixed coal (S0.6%) at 900 yuan/t, down 10
  • ●Ordos, Inner Mongolia: washed 5,000 Kcal/kg NAR slack at 710 yuan/t, down 10
  • ●Overall: of 117 mines, 5 raised avg 30.6 yuan/t, 7 cut avg 37.86 yuan/t, 105 steady
Note: High-CV grades and restocking support prices near term, yet overproduction quotas and Xinjiang outflows lifted supply expectations, capping any rallies.

3Coking coal soft as auctions weaken; Shanxi low-sulfur CCI lower

Domestic coking coal auctions stayed subdued with high failure rates and softer deals, and the Shanxi low-sulfur CCI edged lower day on day as buyers turned cautious and traders offloaded stock. Most other grades were little changed. Tight mine supply and pre-holiday restocking still offered some support, but weaker feed coal and low auction clearance kept the market biased lower.

Note: The coke-price rally has stalled and buyers are cautious, so coking coal drifts soft; tight supply limits the downside but the bias is lower.

Supply & Production

4Shanxi mines resume slowly; supply stays low

A few Shanxi coking-coal mines resumed after passing inspections while most others remained suspended for safety or licence issues, and newly submitted output-expansion applications still await approval. Tracking surveys put dozens of mines halted across the province, keeping supply tight as restarts stay gradual.

Note: Safety-led stoppages and slow approval cycles for raising output temper any quick normalization in coking-coal availability, supporting prices near term.

5Coal-fired burn falls, stocks build -- CEC

Daily average generation at monitored coal-fired plants was 8.3 TWh, down 0.9% week on week and 10.4% year on year, as cooling demand faded, the China Electricity Council said. Coal consumption averaged 4.3 Mt (-1.9% WoW, -7.9% YoY). Stocks shifted from drawdown to build-up, reaching 103.62 Mt as of Sep 17 (-12.64% YoY, +0.29% WoW), covering 21.7 days.

Note: Falling burn and rebuilding stocks ease near-term procurement urgency, though stocks remain below year-ago levels ahead of the winter restocking season.

6Key coal enterprises sold 70.17 Mt in early Sep

China's key coal enterprises sold 70.17 Mt of coal in early September, with daily average sales of 7.02 Mt, up 3.3% from late August and 4.2% year on year, according to the China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association. Total demand held resilient even as station traders turned cautious.

Note: Daily sales turned positive year on year, signalling demand resilience, but cautious traders cap further upside at the mine-mouth.

Policy & Regulation

7China publishes carbon-metrology terminology standard

The State Administration for Market Regulation issued a national specification on carbon-metrology terminology, a milestone that gives China's carbon accounting system a unified, authoritative language as the carbon-peaking and neutrality push enters a critical phase.

Note: Carbon metrology underpins emission policy and green finance; a common standard speeds up verifiable decarbonization and market mechanisms.

8Beijing accelerates 15th FYP prospecting push

The Ministry of Natural Resources will speed a new round of strategic mineral exploration; Jan-Aug exploration-rights transaction value rose 133.5% year on year and non-oil/gas exploration spend climbed 8.1% in H1, with nearly 70 Mt of recoverable oil and 610 Bcm of gas added. New offshore shipbuilding and offshore-engineering equipment orders jumped 83.7% and 160.8%.

Note: The plan coordinates exploration, production, supply, storage and sales of strategic minerals to lock in energy and resource security during the 15th FYP.

9Indonesia grants Bayan Resources extra 15-20 Mt quota

Indonesia's energy ministry allocated an extra 15-20 Mt coal mining quota to three Bayan Resources subsidiaries, supporting domestic processing and supply security under its RKAB system.

Note: More domestic coal processing may marginally reduce exports and support seaborne offers.

International

10Russia Jan-Aug coal exports +7.2%; 2050 plan targets 662 Mt

Russia's coal exports rose 7.2% year on year in Jan-Aug 2026, Deputy PM Alexander Novak said, as recovering global prices repair industry finances. The updated 2050 program targets output of 662 Mt (from 443 Mt) and exports of 350 Mt (from 198 Mt), lifting Russia's share of world coal trade to 24-27% from 13%.

Note: Eastern Siberia and Far East become new supply centers; yet Black Sea disruptions raise logistics costs and erode export netbacks.

11Int'l thermal prices retreat as caution builds

Earlier gains triggered buyer caution and pushed coal lower broadly. Australian high-CV offers softened on weaker Chinese demand, while Indonesian spot stayed tight on force majeure and low rivers even as the HBA was cut again. As of Sep 18, Indonesian 3,800 Kcal/kg NAR was $76.5/t FOB (down $1.5 WoW) and the CCI 4700 index stood at $98.5/t FOB (down $1.5 WoW).

Note: Demand divergence deepened -- Chinese prices stabilized then eased and Indian buyers resisted high offers, shifting the market from a supply rally to wait-and-see.

12Black Sea freeze disrupts Russian coal, metal exports

The virtual standstill in Black Sea shipping has become a logistics shock: attacks on Novorossiysk made owners such as MSC unwilling to call at Russian ports, and Russia-Turkey Black Sea freight jumped to $60-70/t, erasing the economics of many shipments. Russian steelmakers scramble for Baltic and CIS routes.

Note: Higher freight and insurance costs squeeze export netbacks and reshape global metallurgical-coal trade flows.

Downstream & Transition

13Met coke steady but price-cut hopes build

China's met coke market held broadly steady as the policy shock faded; some producers ran near 70% capacity at break-even while others ramped to full but still lost over 100 yuan/t on high-cost stock. Easing feed coal eroded cost support but also narrowed losses, and supply gains against soft steel demand bred expectations of a price cut.

Note: Weak steel prices and mill losses keep the chain under pressure; with supply up and demand flat, upside is capped and a cut looks likely.

14BHP, Baowu renew five-year decarbonization MoU

BHP and China Baowu renewed a five-year MoU to deepen steel decarbonization, advancing blast-furnace upgrading with Pilbara ore to cut CO2 intensity by at least 30% versus conventional BF routes, potentially over 80% where CCS and renewables allow, plus DRI and electric-smelting-furnace trials.

Note: A top miner-steelmaker tie-up moves long-process decarbonization from pilot toward scale.

15Three Gorges inflows plunge, supporting coal

The Three Gorges reservoir's average September inflow was 11,642.6 m3/s, down 33.84% from August, as atypical autumn rains and impoundment by upstream cascades curbed southwestern hydropower output.

Note: Weak hydro plus winter restocking underpin coal-fired baseload and peaking demand, though falling burn and building stocks limit procurement strength.

Market Sentiment

● Portside thermal
Port offers firm on tight spot and high cost; pre-holiday caution caps moves, rangebound
● Mine-mouth thermal
Eases as caution spreads; 7 of 117 mines cut prices, high-CV restocking caps declines
● Coking coal
Shanxi low-sulfur CCI lower, auctions weak, buyers cautious, biased down
● Met coke
Steady but price-cut hopes build as feed coal eases; supply up, demand flat
● Import coal
Stable but soft; seaborne offers steady, buyers cautious on policy and price gap
● Steel
Property investment -19.9%, weak steel prices and mill losses weigh on the chain
● Int'l thermal
Retreats on demand caution; Australian high-CV softens, Indonesian HBA cut again
● Carbon market / clean energy
Carbon-metrology spec, prospecting boost, weak hydro supports coal, storage and UHV expand

● Weak / falling● Neutral / range-bound● Firm / rising

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