Kazakhstan coal transshipments via Russian Baltic and southern ports reached 7.9 million tonnes in the first seven months of 2026, an increase of 26% or 1.6 million tonnes from the same period a year earlier, according to CCA.

The rise was supported by new rail agreements and EU sanctions exemptions covering transit flows.

In April 2025, Russian Railways and Kazakhstan Temir Zholy agreed to increase coal supplies to Russian ports. EU also decided in July 2025 to exempt transactions with certain Russian ports from sanctions when those are used to transit Kazakh coal.

By contrast, Russian coal handled through the same Baltic and southern routes slipped 1% year on year to 35.4 million tonnes from January to July, CCA noted.

Combined handling of Russian and Kazakh coal at Russia's northwestern and southern terminals rose to 43.3 million tonnes, up 3% or 1.3 million tonnes from a year earlier.

That momentum stalled in August, however, as shipments of Russian and Kazakh coal via Black Sea ports virtually ground to a halt. Foreign shipowners refused to call at Azov-Black Sea basin ports following Ukrainian drone strikes on civilian merchant vessels.

If the situation continues and ports in the Azov-Black Sea basin remain effectively idle, the global market could lose 10-12 million tonnes of coal in the second half of 2026 and twice that amount in 2027 unless the regional situation is resolved.