Fenalcarbon, Colombia's coal association, says the country's annual production could recover to 90 million tonnes by 2030 if key policy changes are implemented, compared with its 53 million tonnes forecast for 2026.
The projected increase would depend on reforms to taxation, freight and port charges, licensing procedures, and tighter controls on unauthorised mining, Reuters cited the association as reported.
Colombia last exceeded 90 million tonnes in 2016, and came close again in 2017 with 89.4 million tonnes.
As one of the world's top five coal exporters, Colombia typically sends 90-95% of its output abroad. However, restrictions under the previous administration of Gustavo Petro – who was replaced this month by President Abelardo De La Espriella – combined with weaker international prices, led to a 31% year-on-year drop in export revenues to $4.9 billion last year.
"We expect a completely different approach from the new government, one that understands the importance of coal and coke in generating income for the country, and that this tax strangulation promoted over the last four years comes to an end," said Fenalcarbon President Carlos Cante.
"The moment conditions align, Colombia can certainly return to 90 million tonnes within three or four years." he said.
The new government is reviewing around 330 decrees issued by the prior administration that affect mining and power generation. Energy Vice Minister Luis Francisco Madrinan confirmed that officials are assessing all coal operators and exploring ways to restore competitiveness. He added that the previous ban on coal exports to Israel would be lifted.