China's total electricity consumption is expected to grow 5-6% year on year in the second half of 2026, with maximum grid load projected at 1.57-1.63 TW, according to a forecast released by the China Electricity Council (CEC) on July 30.

The CEC's report on national power supply-demand conditions for the first half of 2026 predicts that by end-2026, total installed power generation capacity will reach around 4.3 TW, with new capacity additions of about 400 GW for the full year. Solar power capacity is expected to surpass coal power capacity in the third quarter, and combined wind and solar capacity will account for half of total installed capacity by end-2026.

During the peak summer period, the national power supply-demand balance is expected to remain generally stable, the report said.

In the first half of 2026, national electricity consumption totaled 5.10 TWh, up 5.3% year on year, with growth accelerating 1.6 percentage points from the same period last year. New installed capacity reached 160 GW in January-June, of which wind and solar combined for 110 GW, representing 70% of total additions.

As of end-June, total installed power capacity reached 4.04 TW, making China the first country to surpass the 4 TW threshold. Non-fossil energy capacity stood at 2.52 TW, up 13.6% year on year, accounting for 62.4% of the total. Solar capacity reached 1.27 TW, or 31.5% of the total, matching the share of coal power, reflecting the continued green transition of the power mix.

In terms of generation, non-fossil energy output rose 8.5% year on year in the first half, accounting for 44.5% of total generation and contributing 70.7% of the incremental increase. Coal power's share of total generation fell below 50% to 49.7%.