The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is turning the Black Sea region into a high-risk zone for global shipping, with grain and energy shipping routes nearly paralyzed. Large-scale Ukrainian unmanned boat and drone attacks in the Black Sea are directly threatening Russian coal exports.

The impact could be in the tens of millions of tonnes. According to analytics institution CCA, Russian ports on the Black and Azov Seas, which also handle coal from Kazakhstan, saw their throughput rise 21.5% in the first half of 2026 to 13.9 million tonnes.

Since the start of the year, southern transport routes, together with the Far East route, have driven overall growth in Russian exports. However, if attacks persist and force a halt to loading operations in the Azov-Black Sea basin, the global coal market could lose an estimated 10-12 million tonnes of supply in the second half of 2026.

CCA noted that this loss would not only offset all the growth in Russian coal exports achieved in the first half of 2026 but could even lead to a contraction in Russia's total coal shipments to the global market. The main challenge is the inability to fully redirect the affected cargo volumes to Baltic ports.

Capacity arrangements for the Oktyabrskaya Railway, the branch of Russian Railways, and the port of Ust-Luga have been finalized through the end of the year, and the railway cannot accommodate an additional 10 million tonnes of cargo in the short term.

Meanwhile, ports in northwestern Russia have also been repeatedly hit by drone attacks and remain ongoing targets, making them an unsafe alternative transport option.

As a result, with the increasingly volatile situation in the Black Sea region, global buyers may face reduced coal supplies from Russia and Kazakhstan. If current demand remains unchanged, this could trigger localized supply shortages and further push up already