Indonesia's coal export flows could face growing weather-related risks in the coming months as drier-than-normal conditions emerge across parts of Kalimantan and Sumatra, raising concerns over declining river levels that could restrict barging operations from inland mines to export terminals. The country's weather agency BMKG forecast the peak dry season is projected to occur between Jul and Sep, with Aug expected to be the most widespread dry period. BMKG's projections indicate that the 2026 dry season could last longer than normal in many areas, with below-average rainfall expected across a large part of the country. Indonesian coal supply chain is highly dependent on river transportation.