China is transitioning from a dual control system focused on energy consumption and energy intensity to one centered on carbon emissions, according to Li Jiankai, Project Department Manager at Fenwei Digital Information Technology Co., Ltd. during a conference held on December 25.

Li highlighted key issues, including China's dual carbon goals, the evolving role of coal, structural adjustments, and the sector's outlook during the Coal Market Outlook 2026 & Sxcoal Annual Conference hosted by Fenwei in Nanning, Guangxi.

Li provided a review of China's policy evolution in energy saving and carbon reduction, tracing its journey from the Kyoto Protocol to the Paris Agreement, followed by the 14th "Five-Year Plan" and the establishment of the "1+N" policy system. These milestones, Li noted, reflect China's unwavering commitment to addressing climate change.

With the introduction of dual carbon goals, China's carbon reduction efforts have evolved from focusing solely on energy savings and emission reductions to a more comprehensive approach that integrates energy conservation, pollution control, and carbon reduction. This shift has also spurred deep reforms in the country's low-carbon governance model.

Li emphasized that China's economy has entered a stage of high-quality development, marked by declining carbon emissions per capita of gross domestic product (GDP), while economic growth quality and efficiency notably improved.

As coal's share in energy consumption continues to decrease and non-fossil energy sources rise, China's energy mix is undergoing unprecedented optimization. Building a modernized energy system has become a priority, focusing on coal supply security, self-sufficiency in oil and gas, and a stable, reliable power supply.

The country will implement a carbon emission dual control system during the 15th "Five-Year Plan" period, with an emphasis on controlling carbon emission intensity, while total emission control will play a supplementary role. These controls will shift after carbon peaking is achieved.

By 2030, non-fossil energy is expected to account for about 25% of primary energy consumption, before reaching approximately 30% by 2035.

On the coal industry's role, Li noted that although coal's leading position in the energy mix is weakening, its value in ensuring energy supply remains crucial, particularly in light of the intermittent nature of new energy sources and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events.

He projected that coal's share of primary energy consumption would fall below 15% by 2060, transitioning from a main energy source to a basic support and supplementary one, which would facilitate the large-scale adoption of renewable energy.

Li also discussed a roadmap toward a greener, more advanced, and intelligent coal sector, driven by intelligent mining techniques, clean and efficient utilization, and the extension of the industrial chain. He emphasized that imported coal would continue to play an essential role, with domestic coal unable to fully replace it, highlighting the ongoing integration between domestic and international coal markets.

In addition, Li called for a balanced approach in the coal sector's transition, ensuring energy security while aligning with green and low-carbon development trends. He pointed to the inclusion of new major emitters, such as steel and cement, into the China Emissions Allowance (CEA) trading system as a key step in promoting the coal industry's green transition.

Li also underscored the importance of technical innovation, urging enterprises to increase research investments to overcome core bottlenecks.