Ukraine's steel production is expected to maintain the 2025 level in 2026, with an estimated output of approximately 7.2 million tonnes under the base scenario, according to a forecast from GMK Center. The country's steel production capacity is also nearing its maximum growth potential.

In the optimistic scenario, steel output could rise to 7.6 million tonnes in 2026. However, in the pessimistic scenario, which assumes potential disruptions to seaborne logistics or restrictions on the European market, production could fall to 6.3-6.6 million tonnes.

The primary risks to production are associated with the European market, which accounts for 81% of Ukraine's finished steel product exports. The introduction of the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is already creating technical barriers for Ukrainian exports. Additionally, the implementation of a stricter tariff quota system in July could impact up to 40-50% of EU imports.

Alternative markets remain challenging to access due to strong competition from China's robust exports, along with high energy and logistical costs.