China's thermal coal imports crept up month on month in November 2025, buoyed by seasonal demand and structural restocking by power plants. Yet, the volume still plunged by more than 20% compared to the previous year, marking a ten-month streak of yearly decline.

Thermal coal imports (non-coking coal) stood at 33.32 million tonnes in November, down 21.94% from 42.69 million tonnes a year ago but rising 6.99% from 31.14 million tonnes in October, according to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs (GAC).

The monthly uptick in imports was driven in part by seasonal factors. With winter setting in, power generators engaged in pre-heating-season stockpiling, prompting structural replenishment. The notable price edge of imported low-CV coal, following fast-rising domestic cargo prices, also stimulated end-user buying activity in the month.

Nonetheless, the yearly decline sharpened notably from the previous month due to last November's unusually high base and broader flagging demand. Warmer-than-expected temperatures across much of China in November muted heating needs, while coal consumption in non-power sectors was insufficient to provide meaningful support to overall demand.

Meanwhile, domestic coal output has remained relatively ample throughout the year, reducing reliance on overseas supply. Coastal power plants reported higher-than-average inventory levels during the month, and with coal burn showing only modest increases, there was little impetus for large-scale purchasing. Many end users also pressed for lower prices, further curbing actual transaction volumes.

Additionally, major exporters such as Indonesia, Australia, and Russia all recorded significant year-on-year (YoY) declines in shipments to China, owing to factors including adverse weather, policy changes, and rail transport bottlenecks. In contrast, imports from Mongolia bucked the trend, suggesting that Ulaanbaatar has been actively boosting production and exports in a year-end push to compensate for earlier shortfalls.

The November import value slid 34.42% YoY yet grew 10.58% month on month (MoM) to $2.14 billion, GAC data showed. The average import price was calculated at $64.23/t, falling 15.98% YoY but up 3.4% MoM.

Thermal coal imports totaled 327 million tonnes in the first 11 months this year, down 13.69% YoY. The import value amounted to $21.09 billion, slumping 30.71% YoY. The average import price was $64.49/t over January-November, falling 19.72% YoY.

By type, lignite imports represented the largest share in November, hitting 16.65 million tonnes, down 17.52% YoY but up 11.12% MoM. It took up 37.8% of China's total coal imports, higher than 35.9% in October.

Other bituminous coal imports dived 26.82% YoY yet climbed 0.46% MoM to 12.36 million tonnes, accounting for 28.1% of China's total coal imports. Other coal imports were 3.01 million tonnes, down 28.58% YoY but up 4.79% MoM. It represented 6.8% of the nation's total coal imports. China's anthracite imports stood at 1.31 million tonnes, down 6.87% YoY yet up 32.1% MoM, and grabbed a share of 3.0%.

Indonesia, Australia, Russia, Mongolia, and the Philippines remained the top five coal suppliers in the reporting month, taking up 99.6% of China's total thermal coal imports.

China imported 20.01 million tonnes of thermal coal from Indonesia in November, down 20.4% YoY but up 9.5% MoM. It accounted for 60.1% of total thermal coal imports, higher than October's 58.7%.

Australia was the second-largest supplier of thermal coal in the month, with 5.35 million tonnes of coal shipping to China, sinking 28.65% YoY and 11.25% MoM, taking up 16.1% of the total. Imports from Russia came in at 4.54 million tonnes, sliding 21.37% YoY but climbing 13.03% MoM.

Thermal coal receipts from Mongolia rose 2.06% YoY and 28.5% MoM to 3.07 million tonnes, while intakes from the Philippines plummeted by 67.65% YoY and 33.02% MoM to 0.22 million tonnes in November.

December has seen most power plants complete their initial winter restocking and hold comfortable inventories. As year-end approaches, industrial activity has begun to slow, limiting the upside for non-power-sector coal demand. International supply remains constrained, while domestic supply is also expected to tighten modestly.

China's thermal coal imports for December are likely to remain flat or show marginal growth against November, while extending a YoY decrease given the high base a year earlier.