China Coal Energy Co., Ltd., the listed arm of China National Coal Group, indicated that while its annual coal production is expected to stabilize, the cost per tonne is set to rise next year.

During recent investor meetings, the state-owned miner projected its annual commercial coal output to stay steady, aligning with the operational status of its main mines and production scheduling. Its coking coal production in the fourth quarter is anticipated to remain consistent with the third-quarter level.

Based on current key project progress, China Coal Energy anticipates new coal production capacity of 6.4 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) and additional coal chemical capacity of 0.9 Mtpa to come online by the end of 2026 or in 2027. Excluding these new capacities, the company expects production and sales of its main products to remain stable.

On the cost front, the company stated that costs in the fourth quarter are typically higher than in the third quarter due to accounting practices and production preparation. However, through stringent cost control measures, the company aims to keep the unit cost per tonne flat quarter on quarter.

Looking ahead to 2026, the company foresees upward pressure on per-tonne costs, attributing this to constrained usage for essential reserve funds dedicated to safety and maintenance.

China's thermal coal market in November experienced an inverted-V shape, said the company, affected by strong expectations for peak winter demand, persistently high shipping costs, and relatively loose supply. By the end of November, the price for 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR thermal coal reached 824 yuan/t, up 52 yuan/t or 6.74% on the month yet down 0.48% year on year.

The producer anticipates the thermal coal market to be range-bound in December, with spot portside prices ranging 750-820 yuan/t. This outlook considers factors such as ample inventories at power plants, demand recovery driven by cold waves, and potential supply constraints.

In the chemical business, China Coal Energy reported stable operations at its major olefin units following maintenance. The company clarified that its urea sales in November were lower than production due to slightly decreased product shipments, leading to modest inventory rises within normal ranges.