India's coal imports are expected to rise about 2% year on year (YoY) in 2025, and a peak for Indian imports is anticipated by 2030, said Vasudev Pamnani, director of India's iEnergy Natural Resources Ltd., at a market summit on February 26.

India holds substantial coal reserves of 378.21 billion tonnes, ranking among the largest globally. In 2024, India was the second-largest in coal consumption (1.3 billion tonnes), production (1.04 billion tonnes), and imports (268 million tonnes).

India's total coal demand was 1.31 billion tonnes in 2024, with 1.04 billion tonnes from domestic production 268.30 million tonnes from imports, which gained marginally by 0.91% YoY.

Imports of thermal coal stood at 171.93 million tonnes (down 2.70% YoY); coking coal 53.87 million tonnes (up 0.10% YoY); anthracite 2.08 million tonnes (down 3.99% YoY); and PCI coal 19.86 million tonnes (up 13.10% YoY).

By origin, imports of Indonesian coal were 113.31 million tonnes (up 5.66% YoY); Australian coal shipments 42.82 million tonnes (down 17.97% YoY); South African coal 33.06 million tonnes (up 5.29% YoY); U.S. coal 28.6 million tonnes (up 1.72% YoY); and Russian coal 27.12 million tonnes (up 0.15% YoY). In addition, there were also imports from Mozambique, Canada and other countries.

Coal will remain the cornerstone of India's energy grid and will continue to play a pivotal role in 2025, according to Pamnani.

In light of the current sluggish market conditions, Vasudev Pamnani has projected a modest increase in India's coal imports, estimating a year-on-year growth of approximately 2% in 2025. He expected coal inflows to peak by 2030.

Coal consumption in India's power sector is expected to grow steadily at an annual rate of 4.6% before 2030, while non-power sectors will increase after 2027.

For the downstream cement sector, he highlighted that due to cost considerations, domestic cement producers may prefer imported petcoke over thermal coal, with expectation for 2025 remaining similar to 2024.

Coal demand in the steel sector is anticipated to continue improving, driving imports in the sector higher even after 2030, Pamnani noted.

With the increase in India's domestic coal production, it is expected that imports of low-and mid-CV coal are projected to decline gradually, while some specific coal types and high-CV coal will rise.