China's portside thermal coal market kicked off the week with a moderate price rebound, but some participants cautioned that weak trading could limit further gains.

On December 30, the CCI index for 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR thermal coal traded at Qinhuangdao port was assessed by Sxcoal at 767 yuan/t and 5,000 Kcal/kg NAR grade at 669 yuan/t FOB with VAT, both rising 2 yuan/t compared with late last week. The index for 4,500 Kcal/kg NAR grade was up 3 yuan/t at 570 yuan/t.

There was a significant divergence among sellers in the market, with 5,000 Kcal/kg NAR high-quality Shanxi coal with 1% sulfur offered at 668-675 yuan/t, a trader source told Sxcoal.

Some miners still bet on continued support from mine-mouth price rebounds. Some miners moderately increased prices by 5 yuan/t at the start of the week, as several companies prepared shipments on the back of rail transportation discounts, which are expected to continue until March.

However, some foresaw limited support since demand appeared to be sluggish following a small pickup last week.

"There seems to be little demand. The recent round of purchasing has largely completed, with only a few scattered orders made by traders trying to speculate on the market," said a Hebei-based seller in northern China.

The source expected prices to remain relatively stable in the near term, due to improved pricing at production areas, but also believed significant increases are unlikely without a strong market driver. 

He reported a deal for 0.8%-sulfur 5,000 Kcal/kg NAR coal made at 673 yuan/t and low-sulfur 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal changed hand at 770 yuan/t.

Offers of 4,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal were heard at 565-580 yuan/t, while a counteroffer for low-sulfur same-CV coal was heard at 576 yuan/t.

Coal burns at power plants retreated and are unlikely to increase significantly this week due to forecast warm temperatures in early January. Coal consumption at power plants of inland provinces fell 5.8% week on week on December 26, while their coal stocks only dipped 1.6% during the same period.

The total power transaction volume in Guangdong for 2025 has reached 341.094 TWh, with an average transaction price of 0.392 yuan/KWh. This represents a decrease of 0.06 yuan/KWh compared to the benchmark electricity price of 0.453 yuan/KWh, according to data released by the Guangdong Power Trading Center on December 23.

This result is lower than what the market had previously anticipated, as many power sales companies initially anticipated that the annual average price would be above 0.4 yuan/KWh.

"Such a significant drop not only indicates an oversupply in the power market but also suggests a downward trend for coal prices," said a Guangdong-based trader source.