Ukraine's steel exports expected to reach 4.6 million tonnes in 2024, marking a local peak, while the figure is projected to fall to 3.9 million tonnes in 2025, according to a report by GMK Center.

The expected decline in steel exports is mainly due to deteriorated prices and tighter global imports. In 2024, cheaper iron ore and expensive scrap made exports profitable, but robust billet exports from China diminished scrap prices, which significantly impacted Ukraine's exports in 2025.

Domestically, ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih (AMKR), the country's largest integrated steel company, is operating only one blast furnace for its economic issues, along with the risky EU's tax-free system for Ukrainian steel products, which is set to expire in June 2025, and uncertainties surrounding trade with the U.S. add to the challenges.

Growing logistics and energy costs are further pressuring steelmakers, especially Ukrainian Railways' plan to increase transportation tariff again, with the logistics share in costs of coal and ferrous metal rising to 1%.

Additional logistics expenses will exceed UAH 14 billion ($33.4 million) annually, according to AMKR, which could weaken the competitiveness of Ukrainian steel and even risk a complete shutdown of production.

Moreover, Ukraine's steel sector heavily relies on the Pokrovsk mine for its coking coal supply, which is threatened by the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict. The country's steel mills may have to import more expensive coal if the mine shuts down, significantly rising costs.

Despite these difficulties, Ukraine's pig iron exports remain stable at 1.3 million tonnes. However, the destination will shift towards the U.S. in 2025 for its more profitable market.

Ukraine's steel exports will drop 60,000-70,000 tonnes in 2025, barring any positive developments.