China's steel exports could exceed 2015 record in 2024

China's steel exports could surpass the 2015 record of 110 million tonnes in 2024, reaching more than 111 million tonnes, up 23% year on year (YoY).

From January to November, shipments have reached 101.2 million tonnes, 12% higher than the 90.3 million tonnes in 2023. China's steel exports surged in 2023-2024, while in 2021-2022, volumes stabilized at 66-67 million tonnes.

The sharp increase in exports is due to a weak domestic market, mainly because of economic difficulties and weak construction industry.

Although many stimulus measures from the government, China's construction industry has continued to decline, forcing steelmakers to sell their surplus products to foreign markets at prices that competitors cannot match.

Chinese producers have quickly gained global markets using mass production and relatively cheap labor. Chinese steel is 10-20% cheaper than products from competitors in the United States, the European Union or other Asian countries.

This has enabled Chinese exporters to displace local producers, especially in developing countries where the industry is less protected from price dumping.

Finished steel products were shipped to Vietnam, South Korea, the UAE, Thailand and the Philippines, with the highest volumes in the first 10 months of 2024. These countries accounted for more than 33% of total exports during the period. Major consumers of semi-finished products included Italy, Taiwan, Djibouti, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia.

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