Ukraine's steel output increased by 23.1% to reach 7 million tonnes in 2024, as per data released on December 9 by the country's steel producers union. However, the industry faces uncertainty as the potential loss of a critical coking coal mine casts doubt over future output, Reuters reported.

The ongoing conflict with Russia, which began in February 2022, has taken a heavy toll on Ukraine's steel sector. Once a major global steel producer and exporter, Ukraine has struggled with the destruction of key steel plants and supply chains amid the conflict.

Steel output plunged by 70.7% to 6.3 million tonnes in 2022 and fell further to 6 million tonnes in 2023.

Between January and November 2024, rolled steel production climbed 18% to 5.7 million tonnes, while pig iron output rose 19.8% to 6.5 million tonnes, according to the union's report.

However, the future of Ukraine's steel production hinges on the fate of a vital coking coal mine located in the eastern town of Pokrovsk, the country's sole domestic supplier of this essential raw material for steelmaking.

Military analysts noted that Russian troops were less than 7 km (4.4 miles) from the outskirts of Pokrovsk. The mine lies just 10 km west of the town, which serves as a key logistical hub.

Reuters learned last week that the mine remains operational. However, the steel producers union warned that if Russian forces seize control of the mine, steel output could plummet to just 2-3 million tonnes in 2025, plummeting from 7.5 million tonnes projected for 2024.

Producers are exploring alternatives should the mine be lost, but costly imports would likely be necessary to sustain ample supply.