China's coal production capacity has been in an expansionary phase since 2021 after going through previous stages of capacity expansion, oversupply, and capacity reduction, Li Jiankai, manager of Project Department of Fenwei Digital Information Technology Co., Ltd., noted in a conference on December 20.

 

The country's coal capacity will maintain moderate growth from 2024, Li predicted in a speech delivered at the 14th Coal Market Summit jointly hosted by Shanxi Culture & Tourism International Trade Co., Ltd. and Sxcoal in Taiyuan, Shanxi province.

 

 

In recent years, with the implementation of policies such as supply-side structural reform, capacity increase and replacement, outdated capacity has been phased out, while high-quality capacity has been added.

 

This has led to an improvement in the nation's effective supply capacity, particularly for thermal coal.

 

Based on current data, Sxcoal predicts that China's coal production capacity may increase by 90 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) from 2023 to reach 5,000 Mtpa in 2024, but with a further slowdown in growth rate.

 

 

As the construction of new coal mines progresses, the growth rate of production capacity is anticipated to reach a small peak in 2026 and stabilize thereafter.

 

Furthermore, the proportion of thermal coal capacity is expected to expand, rising from the current 77.6% to 77.8% in 2024 and further increasing to 78.3% by 2026.

 

Regarding coal production, Li expected raw coal production to reach 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, an increase of over 50 million tonnes compared to 2023. In terms of usage, the supply of thermal coal is forecast to maintain a year-on-year increase, while coking coal may experience a decline.

Sxcoal analysts have recently finished a special report on China's coal production capacity. The report goes beyond the numbers, offering a systematic review of relevant government policies. If you wish to learn more about the report, please check here.