Coal imports into China and India, the world's two biggest importers of the fuel, are expected to decline in December from the previous month due to sluggish demand, Kpler's cargo-tracking data showed.

 

As of December 18, predictive seaborne coal imports of China from the world stood at 32.43 million tonnes, down from November's actual imports of 34.58 million tonnes, but still higher than 28.26 million tonnes in December 2022, Kpler's data showed.

 

Likewise, Kpler's data indicate India's seaborne coal imports are likely to reach 20.63 million tonnes in December, down from 24.37 million tonnes delivered in November 2023, but higher than 16.39 million tonnes in December 2022.

 

Both China and India prefer lower-CV coal from Indonesia, the world's biggest exporter of thermal coal. They have also been diversifying supplies with higher quality coal from Australia, the second-largest supplier.

 

Even next year, world coal consumption is forecast to start declining, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on December 15.

 

The IEA said consumption would rise 1.4% in 2023 to a record 8.5 billion tonnes, driven by increased usage in China, India, and Indonesia outweighing steep declines in Europe and the United States.

 

"We expect to see a downtrend in global coal demand starting in 2024," the Paris-based agency said, as renewable power like solar and wind continues to grow substantially.

 

China's own consumption is projected to increase 220 million tonnes or 4.9% this year. India is seen rising 8% while Indonesia grows 11%, the IEA said.

 

In contrast, Europe is expected to see a 23% or 107 million tonne fall, while U.S. consumption would drop 95 million tonnes or 21%.

 

"This is largely due to weaker industrial activity and the switching of power plants from coal to renewable energy," the IEA data said.

 

The forecasts came after nearly 200 countries at the UN climate talks in Dubai reach a deal to shift the world away from fossil fuels to limit global warming.

 

Coal is the single biggest contributor to energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, a major greenhouse gas blamed for climate change.

 

On December 15, the Newcastle thermal coal futures for January delivery on the ICE dropped 0.87% to $142.75/t at close.