China's northern ports saw their coal stocks shift from a downtrend to an abrupt rise after widespread strong winds triggered by the recent cold wave prolonged the disruption to coal loading activity.

 

With vessels unable to leave due to temporary operation halts, coal stocks held by nine northern ports reached 29.27 million tonnes on December 11, hitting a new high since mid-June this year and marking a significant increase of 2.09 million tonnes from the recent registered on December 9, Sxcoal's data showed.

 

Qinhuangdao port, in particular, witnessed the most significant increase, with its inventory reaching 7.38 million tonnes as of early morning December 12, a new high since late September 2018. That increased 280,000 tonnes on the day and  1.3 million tonnes from the recent low on December 8.

 

This surge in inventories is closely linked to intermittent port closures since the beginning of December. Most of these northern port closed for over 60 hours, some even have accumulated closure of over 65 hours, with the longest occurring on December 8.

 

Qinhuangdao port, for instance, was closed from 8:50 pm on December 8 to 2:20 pm on December 11, totaling 65.5 hours. Huanghua port, closed since 4:30 am on December 9, remains halted as of writing.

 

Outflows through these ports dramatically reduced, while incoming rail deliveries remained normal, according to port dispatch data.

 

Starting from December 10, except for Huanghua port, throughput at the other eight ports dropped to less than 10,000 tonnes. December 11 even saw offtakes drop to zero at some ports including Qinhuangdao, the old Jingtang port, and the coal terminals at Jingtang port. Other ports, including Huanghua port, also witnessed continued reduction.

 

As of December 12, updated data for some ports still show zero or near-zero outflows. The ongoing closures are expected to persist in the near term, given adverse weather forecast in the coming days.

 

From the night of December 12 to December 16, a cold wave is expected to impact various regions of China from west to east, bringing sharp temperature drops and strong winds, with sea areas in the east and south experiencing winds of 6-8 levels and gusts of 9-10 levels.

 

Therefore, the portside coal stock accumulation is highly likely to continue. However, this is considered a transient phenomenon caused by bad weather conditions, and as the strong winds subside and port closures lifted, coal inventories are expected to decline again.