Thermal coal

Production area Thermal coal supply contracted as a few mines cut or halted production around the end of the year. Most coal miners focused on shipments to term-contract buyers. Metallurgical and chemical plants purchased on a need-to basis, while railway stations and washing plants were prudent in purchases. Given ordinary sales, most mines reported downside pressure on coal prices. Several mines with better coal quality and competitive prices raised prices further after seeing improved sales. Miners noted coal prices are likely to keep fluctuating amid both weak supply and demand.

Northern port Inquiries at northern ports increased slightly, especially for mid-CV coal. Traders remained steadfast in offer prices amid supply disruptions and high transportation costs. After a period of flatness, demand picked up marginally and participants reckoned prices will stay range-bound in the near term.

Import market Prices for imported Indonesian coal prices were stable and shipping rates dropped by 1$/t. Supramax 3,800 Kcal/kg NAR coal prices were around $61/t FOB. The near-term price trend remained unclear. Some importers estimated coal imports in 2024 are likely to increase, while term-contract volume could decline.

Coking coal

With rebounded coking coal and coke futures, market sentiment was bolstered again. This, combined with persistent supply disruptions, continued to strain coking coal supply and sustained high prices, especially for backbone coal grades. On Dec 7, online auctions' hammer prices for low-S primary coking coal (S 0.5%, A 12.5%) in Luliang, Shanxi rose to 2,540 yuan/t. Most miners gave robust offers amid no obvious inventory pressure. However, traders still adopted a cautious approach in purchases given their concerns over current too high prices, which resulted in mild drop of prices of several coal grades.

Australian low-vol hard coking coal was offered stable at about 2,881 yuan/t CFR China with VAT, still higher than domestic prices, thanks to continued support from supply interruptions caused by extreme weather in the international market, which are expected to make some end-buyers and traders to postpone purchases.

Met coke

Steel mills' production enthusiasm gradually waned since steel products destocking eased amid slack season. The seasonal maintenance at some steelmakers dragged down capacity utilization rates. But their buying strength for coke is expected to remain strong given rigid demand and low coke stocks, and most mills continued active purchases. Coke deliveries to steelmakers improved in recent days since traders and coking plants both accelerated shipments due to concerns over high prices.