China's coking coal market registered notable price increases in November as more mines suspended production amid escalated safety inspections. This came also with spontaneous halts at some mines for safety and technological improvement.

 

October Supply-demand

China's effective supply of coking coal was estimated at 48.31 million tonnes in October, down 7.71% from the month prior. Total effective supply came in at 493.12 million tonnes during January-October, up 6.53% year on year.

 

 

Demand of coking coal fell 3.29% month on month to 49.83 million tonnes in October. January-October demand totaled 491.84 million tonnes, up 6.12% from the same period last year.

 

Overall, coking coal supply tightened again in October, with demand in excess of supply by 1.52 million tonnes.

 

Overview of November market

Production areas Coking coal stocks held by coal miners increased in early November, but retreated later alongside increased purchases from the downstream sector. As of end-November, coking coal stocks at Sxcoal-surveyed mines increased 8.7 % month on month to 2.99 million tonnes.

 

In November, coking coal production faced frequent interruptions from mine accidents, which, together with purchases from coke producers and traders, boosted prices of the material.

 

 

As of November 24, Fenwei assessed Shanxi low-sulfur primary coking coal at 2,480 yuan/t free-on-rail basis with VAT, up 237 yuan/t from a month ago; Linfen low-sulfur 1/3 coking coal was assessed at 1,900 yuan/t, ex-washplant with VAT, rising 200 yuan/t month on month.

 

Fenwei assessed Jining gas coal at 1,550 yuan/t free-on-rail with VAT, 50 yuan/t lower from a month ago, while Lingshi high-sulfur fat coal increased 200 yuan/t to 2,250 yuan/t.

 

Transfer ports Stocks of coking coal at Jingtang port climbed 2.5% month on month to 1.87 million tonnes as of late November.

 

As of November 24, the price of primary coking coal was 2,600 yuan/t at Jingtang port, on ex-stock basis with VAT, climbing 200 yuan/t from the month before.

 

 

On the same day, Fenwei assessed the price of imported premium primary coking coal at $320/t CFR China, up $37/t from a month ago. The imported Canadian coking coal prices increased 270 yuan/t to 2,570 yuan/t, ex-stock with VAT.

 

Consumption areas As of end-November, steel mills held 5.11 million tonnes of coking coal, up 4.7% month on month, while coking plants had 2.58 million tonnes, up 4.1% from the month-ago level.

 

Chengde Iron and Steel Group's purchase price for primary coking coal was 2,490 yuan/t as of November 24, DDP basis with VAT, up 30 yuan/t from the previous month.

 

Downstream sectors

Steel market On November 27, social stocks of steel products in major cities totaled 8.97 million tonnes, down 3.9% from the month before, continuing the downward trend.

 

Coke market With increased coke futures prices, traders ramped up deliveries to ports. By end-November, coke stocks at ports increased 70,000 tonnes, while that at steel mills and independent coking plants decreased 10,000 tonnes and 40,000 tonnes.

 

Each month, Fenwei analysts produce a report on Chinese coking coal market, giving analysis from macro-economy, downstream sectors, supply/demand, import, stocks and prices and making forecast for the next month.

 

The report titled China Coking Coal Market Monthly Report is released before the end of each month.

 

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