China's portside thermal coal prices may stabilize or even rebound moderately, as falling inventories at utilities could potentially spur spot purchases while supplies are being curbed by strengthened safety inspections.

Recent chilly weather has ramped up coal consumption at coastal utilities. On November 27, coal stocks stood at 17.5 days' worth of use at power plants in coastal provinces, down from 18.9 days a week earlier. Their stocks were enough to cover nearly 20 days in mid-November.

Despite still above the 14-day safe level, coal stockpiles may fall further if without timely replenishment, as coal burns climb amid falling temperature in the winter season.

Coal stocks are also falling at northern ports. On November 29, coal stockpiled at Qinhuangdao port dropped below 6 million tonnes to 5.96 million tonnes, the first time since November 1.

Caofeidian port also followed a similar track despite fluctuations. As of November 29, the port's coal stocks dropped to 13.16 million tonnes, down from the recent high of 13.83 million tonnes on November 18.

Meanwhile, coal supply is likely to decrease as safety inspections further intensifies after a serious mining accident in Heilongjiang. Miners may scale back production next month after completing annual production targets and fulfilling term contracts, traders noted.

Buying activity has reportedly heated up at ports along the Yangtze River since late November 29 and likely spreads to northern ports next week, several local traders told Sxcoal.

But as of early November 30, only a few utilities and traders were taking spot positions to meet pressing needs, with broader restocking activity yet to emerge.