Indonesian thermal coal prices were largely unchanged, but could likely fall owing to limited buying from China, traders said.

 

Only a few trades were heard concluded in recent days by Chinese traders to delivery prompt cargoes to end users. Some early-December 3,800 Kcal/kg NAR cargoes traded at $61-61.5/t Panamax and $59-59.5/t Supramax, both on a FOB basis.

 

The prices were much higher than common bids received by Indonesian miners. One of them got the highest bids at $58/t FOB for Supramax cargo, Sxcoal learned.

 

Mid-CV cargoes saw significant spread between offers and bids. Panamax 5,000 Kcal/kg GAR thermal coal was generally offered at $80-81/t FOB, while bids were only seen at $75-76/t, suggesting huge divergence between sellers and buyers.

 

"The majority cargoes of this grade are offered index-linked, flat or at a $1/t premium," said another Indonesian miner. "In fact, December-loading cargoes are not much left in the market and we are beginning to talk January shipments."

 

A Shanghai-based utility reportedly concluded a tender on November 28, with a 3,400 Kcal/kg NAR cargo awarded at 504 yuan/t DDP with VAT. A Fujian-based utility awarded a 3,800 Kcal/kg NAR cargo at 558.6 yuan/t DDP with VAT through a tender. These cargoes were scheduled to be delivered in January.

 

The price increase in the spot market was not significant enough to generate a bullish sentiment, as it only saw a slight rise in comparison to last week. As of November 24, Sxcoal assessed tender-winning prices for3,800 Kcal/kg NAR coal at 555 yuan/t DDP with VAT.

 

India's buying interest has emerged with growing inquiries from traders, mainly for low-CV grades, traders noted. Some of them made inquiries for 3,400 Kcal/kg GAR cargoes, but didn't translate into deals.

 

"Domestic supplies are sufficient and power plants have nine days' worth of stockpiles at present, compared to five days during Diwali," said an Indian source.

 

Australian thermal coal prices have also remained flat even as freight rates from key export hubs have jumped significantly, traders said.

 

January shipments of Australian 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal stood around $94/t FOB this week, according to participants. December-loading cargoes were almost sold out.

 

Shipping rates have surged sharply, with Panamax rates rising to $19/t and Capesize $17/t from Newcastle to South China, traders said.

 

Traders also noted some high-CV Colombian cargoes are set to arrive in January, but the volume may be not large enough to impact the market sentiment. Some January-arrival 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR cargoes were priced at 876 yuan/t CFR East China's Shandong province, inclusive of VAT.

 

On November 29, the CCI index for Indonesian 4,700 Kcal/kg NAR thermal coal was at $91.9/t CFR South China, up $0.2/t day on day, and $83.7/t on FOB basis, flat from a day earlier. The CCI index for Indonesian 3,800 Kcal/kg NAR coal was assessed at $69.0/t CFR, a $0.2/t rise, and $59.0/t FOB, unchanged.

 

The CCI index for Australian 5,500 Kcal/kg NAR coal edged $0.2/t lower at $108.7/t CFR South China.