As the 28th UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) approaches, a key question on many minds is when China - the world's largest carbon emitter - will reach its carbon peak.

 

Based on China's rapid growth in renewable energy deployment and declining costs, experts believe the country is well-positioned to hit this milestone by 2030 as it promised.

 

More than 70% of surveyed experts believe China can achieve its goal of peaking carbon emissions before 2030, although over half forecast the peak will be over 15% higher than 2020 levels, according to a report issued on November 21.

 

The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and the International Society for Energy Transition Studies (ISETS) polled 89 climate and energy experts for the report "China Climate Transition Outlook 2023: Expert Survey and Interviews".

 

CREA is a Finland-based research organization while ISETS is a non-profit based in Australia.

 

China's carbon intensity reduced by 18.8% in 2020 compared to 2015. The China Carbon Emission Accountancy Database (CEADs), overseen by Tsinghua University, indicates China's total apparent carbon dioxide emissions in 2020 amounted to 10.74 billion tonnes.

 

The vast majority of the emissions come from coal combustion with smaller portions from oil and natural gas. While energy demand will continue growing for the foreseeable future, the rate of increase is slowing.

 

Several factors indicate China's emissions could peak by the end of the decade. Industrial sectors, such as steel, once the top CO2 emitter, have seen lower or even zero growth in production. Meanwhile, services sectors are expanding but their carbon emissions are far lower than industrial ones.

 

Remarkably, solar power is poised to play the defining role in making this possible.

 

Following supply disruptions in 2022, the global solar industry underwent a massive scale-up in 2023. This caused prices to plummet over 80% from late 2022 to early 2023. The lowered costs have touched off a frenzy of new solar installations across China.

 

In 2021, China added just over 50 GW of solar. This jumped to over 80GW in 2022 but is estimated to exceed 200 GW for 2023 - more than doubling year on year. Solar now accounts for around half of China's annual clean energy additions and emissions reductions. With solar industry capacity continuing to grow rapidly, peak could come even sooner.

 

While renewable energy costs have put China on the cusp of its emissions goal, integrating higher levels of variable wind and solar still poses challenges. Developing smart grid and storage solutions will be crucial to maximize renewable output and ensure grid stability as the transition to carbon neutrality accelerates.